Frank Wolf's 2010 Intentions

Well, leave it to Lowell to report the interesting. Frank Wolf's fundraising has been anemic at best, retirement-worthy even.

I was checking the FEC disclosure database and was utterly amazed at Rep. Frank Wolf's fundraising in the first quarter of 2009. Not "amazed" because it was so high, but "amazed" because it was so low. How low is low? We're talking just $5,203 in total receipts for 1Q09. With disbursements of $21,078 and a starting balance of $56,113, that leaves Rep. Wolf (R-10) with just $40,238 cash on hand - and falling fast. - Blue Virginia

Money is a good indicator of intentions. So are actions - or lack thereof. And Frank Wolf has not been very active lately.

Frank Wolf has never been an official to miss a photo op. When the stimulus bill passed Congress and was signed by the President, it was the perfect opportunity for Rep. Wolf to take some undeserved credit. In the bill (which Rep. Wolf voted against, along with every other Republican) was money for our own Loudoun Community Health Center. In previous years, you can bet Rep. Wolf would have set himself at the steps of Cornwall and taken some well set photos. This year, that didn't happen.

Another indicator of intentions is the intensity with which a Representative is doing their job. So far in the 111th Congress, Frank Wolf has sponsored only two bills. By this point of the 110th Congress, Frank Wolf had directly sponsored sixteen bills. It's important to note that the Republicans were also in the minority in the 110th, so we should limit that as a reason for his decline in bill sponsorship. Wolf has signed on to co-sponsor a number of bills, but that's a lot less work than introducing legislation himself.

There are good reasons to speculate that Frank Wolf is seriously considering retirement in his relative lack of activity and fundraising. He turns 70 this year, and has been in Congress since 1981. He saw his party retake the majority in the House, and served as an important committee Chairman during that period. Now that the Republicans are back in the minority, and Virginia is trending blue (though Frank Wolf himself won handily in 2008), he is not likely to regain the level of influence he once had anytime soon.

If Frank Wolf does retire, there are a number of potential (and great) Democrats who could step up to run for the seat.

If Wolf doesn't run, I'd expect a number of Democrats (Karen Schultz? Mark Herring? Mike Turner?) to throw their hats in the ring. I'd also expect a number of Republicans to do the same. This would be a fascinating race, considering that Frank Wolf has kept winning in a district that has gone to Tim Kaine, Jim Webb, Mark Warner and Barack Obama in recent years. - Blue Virginia

A possible Frank Wolf retirement puts Mike Turner's announcement yesterday in a very interesting light. Is he readying for another shot at Congress? We Democrats could do a lot worse.

Of course, all of this is pure, though informed, speculation. If I had to guess, I would put the chances of a Wolf retirement at about 50:50 right now. It would be very easy for Rep. Wolf to pick up his fundraising for 2010. There is no Virginia Senate seat at stake, freeing up a lot of Republican money for the now-fewer Republican Congressional incumbents in Virginia (thanks to Rep. Gerry Connolly, Rep. Tom Periello and Rep. Glenn Nye). As the most senior Virginia Republican in Congress, Frank Wolf could attract as much of that money as he could reasonably need. Furthermore, Eric Cantor's star in the Republican Party would not continue rising as fast as it has if his Virginia delegation in the House continues shrinking on his watch. He needs Frank Wolf to hold the 10th as he makes his play for Minority Leader (or Senate?) in the next few cycles.

As ever, Frank Wolf bears watching, as much for what he doesn't do as for what he does.

P.S. I gotta echo a few more words from Lowell.

I consider myself a Progressive in the tradition of Thomas Jefferson, Benjamin Franklin, Tom Paine, Teddy Roosevelt, JFK, RFK, and Jim Webb. As such, I believe in expanding opportunities to all, utilizing government as a tool to promote the general welfare and the common good, protecting the environment for ourselves and for future generations, and expanding the rights promised in our Constitution and Bill of Rights to all Americans. - Blue Virginia

Yes.