Del. Bob Marshall and HD 13

Much has been made of the massive population shifts in our area and the implications that has for local politics. New residents have been given credit for the 2008 Democratic surge in Loudoun, but many of the voters who turned out to elect Barack Obama president have not participated in the off-year state and local elections. A critical mission for the local Democratic party is to keep those voters energized and voting Democratic in 2009.

A critical test of sustained Democratic activism may be the future of Del. Bob Marshall. Del. Marshall is something of a quixotic, conservative institution in the Assembly, having served in the House of Delegates since 1992. From his sponsorship of the Virginia Constitutional Amendment that outlawed recognition of relationships other than marriage, to his militancy against pro-choice legislation and women, his brand of Virginia Republicanism would seem to be beyond the norm for his exurban district in 2009.

Virginia got a taste of Del. Marshall's unabashed advocacy during his campaign for the Republican nomination for Senate this past year. During that effort, he claimed to violate some laws of physics with his campaign prowess, and he nearly won, even though the nominating process had been designed to ensure Jim Gilmore's nomination. After the loss, some of Del. Marshall's supporters shouted "Baby Killer" at the RPV's newly-minted nominee. Del. Marshall even withheld support from the Republican nominee, seeking concessions from an already-wounded Gilmore.

Classy.

Del. Marshall delved into his own electoral analysis after the 2008 election, and confidently predicted he would continue to represent the 13th District after the 2009 state elections.

Sorry to disappoint your hopeful bloggers, but McCain received 50.04% (32,754) to Obama's 49.96% (32,701) [in the 13th District].

And that was with a more than a year long effort to find Obama voters in my district which now has more registered voters than some state Senate districts.

If anyone thinks I will sit still between now and next November, well, I started off as a democrat, and I haven't been in office since 1992 for nothing. - Del. Bob Marshall

And Del. Marshall has not sat still. On the contrary, he has opened his 2009 re-election war chest with a $500 donation from Altria. This is separate from the statewide PAC he has founded, leading to speculation he is lining himself up to run for higher office after his near-miss at the 2008 Virginia Republican Convention.

In 2006, no one would have expected an upstart like Jim Webb to take down a Virginia institution like George Allen. Here in the northern Virgina exurbs, we have a similar situation with Del. Marshall. He is a local institution of brash regression, and will be tough to beat (else Bruce Roemmelt would have taken him down in 2007). But the exurban political landscape in 2009 is not what it was in 2007 (or even November 2008), and we can prove ourselves up to the challenge.

All in all, Bob Marshall is a formidable opponent with deep roots in his district. He knows how to grab a headline and play on the worst fears and feelings of voters who dislike change. But change has come, and it will continue to overwash the Old Dominion, leaving a new, stronger commonwealth in its wake. Defeating Bob Marshall in the 13th District will simply be one more step down the road of progress in Virginia. Let's hope that defeat comes this year.