Now Virginia Counts

On February 12th, Virginia holds its Democratic Presidential Primary. After Sen. Clinton's victory in New Hampshire last night, Virginia's primary begins to loom large in the nomination battle for the Democratic Party. The conventional wisdom is that the nomination will be tied up on "Super Duper Tuesday," February 5th. But that same conventional wisdom had Obama winning handily last night, and Hillary Clinton "inevitable" in late 2007. As has been said many times this morning, now we have a race on our hands.

Primaries and caucuses do not directly select nominees, just like votes for President are not actually cast for President. In both cases, the voters are actually voting for a slate of people who themselves vote directly for the candidate. In the case of primaries, they are voting for delegates to each Party's national convention. In the case of a Presidential election, the votes are cast for electors - people whose votes actually count and are committed to voting for a given candidate for President. Thus, the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire Primary selected a series of delegates to the Democratic National convention, those delegates are generally committed to voting for either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton (or John Edwards, Bill Richardson, etc, depending on how the delegates are allocated in the state) on the first ballot for the nominee at the national convention.

With a mixture of wins and losses in the various states during the nomination battle, such as differing, close wins for Obama and Clinton in Iowa and New Hampshire, delegate counts matter.

While this win for Clinton makes her the favorite once again, and while much the same can be said about McCain, another lesson from tonight as that no one has anything locked up. This could go on for a while. Big McCain vs. Romney showdown in Michigan next Tuesday. Next Saturday, huge Obama vs. Clinton matchup in Nevada, and Huckabee vs. McCain matchup in South Carolina. There is plenty of time for movement in both directions in all three of those states. This isn't over by a longshot.

Also, I can now do something I have always wanted to do as a blogger and a political junkie: keep a meaningful delegate count. Here are the preliminary numbers:

Democrats
Obama: 25
Clinton: 24
Edwards: 18

- Chris Bowers, OpenLeft

You'll note that even with her victory in New Hampshire, Sen. Clinton has not yet taken the delegate count lead. That's because the calculus of delegate allocation in Iowa vs. New Hampshire means that her 6% win in New Hampshire did not yield as many delegates as Obama's 8% win in Iowa.

However, Sen. Clinton's national organization gives her a natural advantage in picking up the votes that matter - the delegates - when they matter. Chris Bowers at OpenLeft explains.

In a development that has flown under the radar, it now seems to me that, as long as Clinton wins Florida and California, she will be ahead in delegates after February 5th no matter what happens in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.
...
Collectively, Clinton's advantage in Super Delegates, Michigan, and February 5th home states provides her with roughly a 500 delegate advantage on Obama. If she were to also win Florida and California, which combine for 555 pledged delegates, it would be impossible for Obama to be ahead on delegates after February 5th. He could win every other state between now and February 6th, and never make up that sort of delegate deficit. - "The Delegate Count: Clinton's Firewall and a California Showdown," Chris Bowers

This is why Virginia now counts. Virginia, Maryland and DC could be an Obama firewall in the same manner that Arkansas, Connecticut, New Jersey and New York are for Sen. Clinton. Obama can and should have an advantage in Maryland and DC, with their large African-American populations. This brings us to Virginia. While Hillary Clinton has been working the elected officials in New Hampshire and Nevada and similar states, Barack Obama has tied up many important officials in Virginia. And it's not just the elected officials on board for Obama here, it's important bloggers as well.

Given this, I've decided to join with Tim Kaine, Bobby Scott, and Doug Wilder in supporting Barack Obama. I have the greatest respect for John Edwards and Hillary Clinton, and will enthusiastically support either if he or she is the nominee. Having said that, I am now firmly and enthusiastically in the Obama camp. - Lowell, RaisingKaine

Maryland (99 Democratic delegates) and Virginia (103 Democratic delegates, thanks Wikipedia!), are the biggest prizes between February 5th (Super Duper Tuesday) and March. Victories in these states will have the potential to change the dynamic coming out of February 5th if the race is still fractured. Thus, it really does matter, thanks to New Hampshire, who we go vote for on February 12th. (It's good to be wrong sometimes.)

Isn't this fun?