Firetti's Money Man

If a single person financed the vast majority of your campaign, wouldn't you feel beholden to that person if you were elected?

One candidate who has not garnered much financial backing from individual contributors is Republican County Chairman candidate Mike Firetti, whose campaign is primarily funded by a loan from his campaign manager, Brian Roherty. Roherty said the $40,000 in loans from his Fineline Marketing and Communications firm to Firetti will be repaid once the candidate starts gearing up with fundraising.

"I didn't put in $40,000 in loans with the expectation that it wouldn't get paid back," Roherty said, adding that Firetti's next campaign finance reports should be filled with contributions that can be used to repay him. - Leesburg Today

Talk about owing someone a favor.

Leesburg Today does a great job of going into detail as to the financial arrangements of Firetti's campaign for Chairman of the Board of Supervisors. The people financing his campaign are the same people who poured money into earlier campaigns against smart growth initiatives in Loudoun County. This is just more evidence that the Republican claims of probity are in fact merely smokescreens issued in an election year. Nothing has changed, and the developer interests are seeking to expand their presence on the Board by inserting Firetti as Chairman. After all, Firetti's campaign manager is an expert at protecting the developer's interests in elections.

Roherty first became involved in Loudoun politics when he arrived as executive director of the Right Growth Policy Institute, a group that conducted a similar advertising blitz that targeted the Piedmont Environmental Council and slow-growth advocates while declining to identify the source of the organization's funding.

And the developers' influence isn't limited to Mike Firetti.

At a total of $246,243, developers remain the largest contributors to the local races. In total, Supervisor Eugene Delgaudio (R-Sterling) leads the pack with $81,490 raised from the real estate/construction industry; followed by Supervisor Mick Staton (R-Sugarland Run) with $76,974; Supervisor Stephen J. Snow (R-Dulles) with $33,428; and Supervisor Bruce E. Tulloch (R-Potomac) with $16,750. No other candidate raised more than $2,500 from that industry.

Follow the money, see where it leads, and ask what's best for our community, then vote on November 6th.

(And no, I had no idea Leesburg Today would be running an article on campaign funding when I wrote my posts on the subject yesterday.)

Commercial Development and Loudoun Conty

I wanted to point out an excellent alternative analysis of commercial development in Loudoun County. I am personally in favor of expanding the economic base of the county to include more businesses like Volkswagen and AOL, but Ryan at The Bellows makes the case that this is not in the best interests of northern Virginia at large:

Now, I understand that Loudoun wishes to broaden its tax base beyond residential property taxes, but there are at least three good reasons that this kind of intra-metropolitan competition is no good. On the one hand, it might easily create a situation where neighboring counties are throwing incentives at a company simply to lure it a few miles in one direction. This is ludicrous. At that point, the firm will have presumably decided that the area is a good potential location for it, and the gains to the local market will be on the way; all incentive battles will do is shift unnecessary taxpayer money to the corporation. And if it’s just a case of one county trying to poach a firm from another, that’s no good either. There are gains to concentrating near other firms, which is why companies pay higher rents for the privilege of doing so. Paying an incentive to get a company to leave such an agglomeration might compensate the company for its loss from moving away, but it won’t compensate the other companies who would have benefited from having the target firm near them. - Ryan at The Bellows

It is always a good idea to hear both sides of any question, my thanks to Ryan for providing the other side of this one.

College Loan Costs and Congress

Among the many differences between the current generation and our parents is the fact that almost universally, we graduated from college with significant amounts of debt, while our parents did not. This has had a major effect on the choices made by people in their 20s and 30s, especially when it comes to careers and spending. As things stand today, many students who would prefer to teach in underserved neighborhoods, or doctors who would like to go into public service, or lawyers who want to be public defenders or work on civil liberties, cannot do so because those careers will not let them retire the debt acquired in college and graduate school.

While many citizens criticize "young people" for being too focused on money and "what's in it for me," they do not realize that we are simply responding to the incentives presented to us by our society. Unlike when our parents were in their 20s, for us college is expensive, job security is a joke, health insurance is a crapshoot, and Social Security is a nice idea, but not to be counted on.

During the 2000 election, the public debate was over whether the Federal budget surplus should be used to cut taxes, or preserve Social Security. There is a great quote from that Urban Institute study:

The budget resolution aims to save the entire Social Security surplus and to run a small surplus in the non-Social Security budget after fiscal year 2003. It is almost certain that actual surpluses will be somewhat less than these amounts, because the budget resolution assumes politically unrealistic cuts in domestic spending that will not materialize. - "Saving The Surplus to Save Social Security", The Urban Institute

Truer words were never written.

At the time of the surplus, some people who were not in the spotlight (because they were young) asked, why not forgive my school loans? School loan forgiveness is the essence of a good public policy move. First, it puts money in the hands of those most able to use it effectively - educated workers. Second, it enables those educated workers to make different choices when it comes to careers and consumption. Third, it rewards work. Most of the surplus the Clinton Administration left to The Executive was spent on tax cuts, and most of those tax cuts rewarded investment, not work.

Forgiving college loans insures that young people do not start out in debt, making them more able to afford cars, and homes and washing machines, without defaulting on high-interest mortgages. It is a targeted benefit to the part of the economy best able to multiply the effect of that money.

For these reasons, today's news about the "College Cost Reduction and Access Act" being signed into law is important. It begins the resumption of the successful economic policies of the 1990s Clinton Administration, which helped preserve and extend the largest post-war boom in American history. This bill is the reawakening of one of the many good ideas left from the 1999-2000 Presidential campaign, only now given life by the Democratic majority in Congress. Yet more proof that who controls Congress matters.

This law is only a first step, but it is a demonstrable change in direction for our college financing system. Furthermore, the idea of dealing with college loan debt at a national level is gaining steam in the 2007-2008 Presidential campaign, as evidenced by Bill Richardson's idea to forgive college loans after a year of public service.

We can only hope that we will see surpluses again some day, and when we do, that money can be invested in people just starting out. We did it before (with the GI Bill) and it was the foundation of our greatness. It is time to be great again.

(With a tip-o-the-hat to The Richmond Democrat for getting the college debt reduction story first!)

An Interlude: Sea Turtle Rescue

A good friend works with sea turtles. This year, they released one of the largest rescue classes of sea turtles ever, back into the wild.

25 turtles set free in Indian River after 3 years of research (with video)

Delegate and Senate Race Money

Using methodologies based on VPAP as explained in the discussion of Jim Clem's campaign money, it is useful to look at the 27th Senate District and the 33rd House of Delegates District races.

In the 33rd House of Delegates district, Joe May has received 16% of his campaign contributions from within Loudoun County and Clarke County. Marty Martinez has received 43% of his contributions from within Loudoun County and Clarke County. Apparently, the largest industry contributor to Joe May's campaign is Transportation, including "Private Highway Companies." It's interesting that the Greenway ends just shy of Joe May's district.

The 27th Senate District includes all or part of four localities: Loudoun County, Fauquier County, Clarke County, Frederick County and Winchester City. Jill Holtzman-Vogel has received 42% of her campaign money from within those localities. (none of it from Clarke County, interestingly enough). Karen Schultz has received 59% of her money from within those localities.

Jim Clem's Money Disparity

When examining the public disclosures of fundraising in the Clem-Burk Board of Supervisors race, it is interesting to note that Jim Clem currently has only $6,070 cash on hand, and has only raised $4,762 this election cycle. With the election fewer than six weeks away, that would appear to be a precarious position for an incumbent to be in.

(The Virginia Public Access Project)
That money should be put in context, however. In the 2003 election cycle, Jim Clem raised $27,684. It is extremely unlikely that he will only raise 1/5 of that amount in 2007. On the contrary, it appears likely that a significant amount of "late" money will come in as the season closes. That way Supervisor Clem gets the money he needs for his election, but the knowledge of where that money came from will not be circulated until the election has been decided.

After all, it takes some time to file the disclosure forms, review them, and make them available publicly. VPAP is a separate website which uses public filings; Virginia itself does not necessarily make the filings available online. Thus, there are may be five steps between a candidate receiving money and that donation being disclosed online:

1) The candidate files their disclosure form.
2) The state reviews the disclosure form.
3) The disclosures are made available "publicly." (i.e., at an office in Richmond)
4) VPAP acquires the disclosure information.
5) VPAP publishes that information online.

In this manner, a full week could go by between disclosure and online knowledge of the money, let alone the amount of time between receipt of the donation and online publication (since disclosure forms are due only periodically, not at the time of donation).

So it is informative to examine the money that Jim Clem received for his 2003 election as a guide to the money he might receive for the 2007 election. Jim Clem's contributions by industry show that he received over $10,600 from the Real Estate / Construction industry. It is unlikely to expect that these 2003 donors will stay on the sidelines in 2007, when Supervisor Clem is opposed by a candidate who will hold developers accountable for the costs they impose on the county.

It is also interesting to note that in 2003, more than half of Jim Clem's contributions came from outside Loudoun County. Meanwhile, in 2007 over 80% of Kelly Burk's contributions have come from within Loudoun County. It is similarly unlikely that those out-of-County interests will decline to contribute to Jim Clem's campaigns in 2007 when they were so instrumental to the financing of his 2003 campaign.

Thus, it is reasonable for us to expect an influx of money into Jim Clem's campaign coffers as the campaign season ends, bringing him the ability to advertise and mail right before the election. It is also likely that this money will come from interests who are not interested in letting it be known they financed Jim Clem's campaign (otherwise, they would have given the money to him already). Leesburg's voters deserve to know who is paying for their candidates' campaigns before making their decision on November 6th. We should look carefully at any advertising and mailings from Jim Clem in the next month, because that money had to come from somewhere.

(For anyone interested in the financial elements of Virginia elections, VPAP is an invaluable resource. I encourage you to check it out, if only to see who has been giving money to your local representatives. As ever, I continue to be a volunteer for Kelly Burk's campaign.)

Patriot Act Erodes

A judge in Oregon has further eroded the Patriot Act.

A federal judge in Oregon ruled Wednesday that crucial parts of the USA Patriot Act were not constitutional because they allowed federal surveillance and searches of Americans without demonstrating probable cause. The ruling by Judge Anne L. Aiken of Federal District Court in Portland was in the case of Brandon Mayfield, a lawyer in Portland who was arrested and jailed after the Federal Bureau of Investigation mistakenly linked him to the Madrid train bombings in March 2004. “For over 200 years, this nation has adhered to the rule of law — with unparalleled success,” Judge Aiken’s opinion said in finding violations of the Fourth Amendment prohibitions against unreasonable search and seizure. “A shift to a nation based on extraconstitutional authority is prohibited, as well as ill advised.” - The New York Times

What is interesting about this case is that the defendant reached a settlement with the government before this case went through it's court process, but the settlement explicitly allowed this case to go forward to test the legality of the Patriot Act.

Mr. Mayfield sued the government, which apologized and agreed to a $2 million settlement last November. The settlement included an unusual condition that freed the government from future liability with one exception. Mr. Mayfield was allowed to continue a suit seeking to overturn parts of the Patriot Act. It was that suit on which Judge Aiken ruled Wednesday.

The mechanisms of democracy often work slowly, but they do work. Our Courts are reconsidering so many of the laws passed in the past six years which have limited cherished constitutional protections. At the end of the day, without Constitutional amendments the rights we have are limited to the rights the Courts say we have. This is why the makeup of the U.S. Supreme Court is a voting issue in 2008, and this is why the Senate's "Advise and Consent" role in appointing judges is so critical.

At some point in the next few years, there will be a case before the Supreme Court which bundles many of the District Court level opinions about the Patriot Act and other bills of the post-9/11 era, and that case will set the precedent for the liberties our children grow up with. I will be a father this year, and I want my children to have all the rights I do today.(Heck, I want them to have all the rights I had in 1997!)

Incidentally, the language in the judge's decision is lyrical and inspiring, as so many decisions in this area have been recently. We are lucky that our judges and justices have given us so many wonderfully quotable phrases to use.

Significantly, a seemingly minor change in wording has a dramatic and significant impact on the application of FISA. A warrant under FISA now issues if "a significant purpose" of the surveillance is foreign intelligence. Now, for the first time in our Nation's history, the government can conduct surveillance to gather evidence for use in a criminal case without a traditional warrant, as long as it presents a non-reviewable assertion that it also has a significant interest in the targeted person for foreign intelligence purposes.

Since the adoption of the Bill of Rights in 1791, the government has been prohibited from gathering evidence for use in a prosecution against an American citizen in a courtroom unless the government could prove the existence of probable cause that a
crime has been committed. The hard won legislative compromise previously embodied in FISA reduced the probable cause requirement only for national security intelligence gathering. The Patriot Act effectively eliminates that compromise by allowing the Executive Branch to bypass the Fourth Amendment in gathering evidence for a criminal prosecution.
...
It is notable that our Founding Fathers anticipated this very conflict as evidenced by the discussion in the Federalist Papers. Their concern regarding unrestrained government resulted in the separation of powers, checks and balances, and ultimately, the Bill of Rights. Where these important objectives merge, it is critical that we, as a democratic Nation, pay close attention to traditional Fourth Amendment principles. The Fourth Amendment has served this Nation well for 220 years, through many other perils. - Mayfield et. al., vs. U.S.A., Opinion and Order

Furthermore, if you want to know exactly how the FISA process works, there's an in-depth explanation of the whole FISA system starting on page 15 of the Opinion.

I am hopeful that these courageous judges deciding the cases in favor of our liberty will be on the short-list for the Supreme Court when the next opening on that panel arrives.

Republicans Stall Legislation

There is a great post up on MyDD today about how Republicans stall legislation in Congress. Basically, the Republican leadership in the Senate has multiple opportunities to stop any legislation in its tracks, and they have been doing so, at a rate far greater than any Senate minority in history.

(Image from McClatchy.)
Traditionally, only a "hold" has been necessary to stall legislation, but even with holds, some legislation actually passes the Senate, and the Republican minority in the Senate just cannot have that. Jonathan Singer explains how the Republicans are not letting bills be considered in the House-Senate Conference Committee even after they have been passed by both houses as he analyzes an article in the New York times.

Indeed the Republicans have balked at negotiations over bills like S-CHIP reauthorization and ethics reform -- but that's not the full extent of it. Hulse does note that, for instance, on the ethics bill Senate Republicans refused to le the bill go to conference through a hold spearheaded by South Carolina Republican Jim DeMint. Hulse fails to mention, however, that Senate Republicans did the exact same thing on the children's healthcare bill, with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell refusing to appoint conferees. - Jonathan Singer on MyDD

For the casual citizen, that means that the Senate Minority Leader is refusing to let legislation that has already been considered and passed by both houses (hence, the need for a Conference Committee, to which conferees are appointed), be considered by a Conference Committee of House and Senate members for resolution of potential differences between House and Senate versions. Such a Conference Committee is the last step before final passage of a bill to be sent to the President for his signature. This is not legislation that is being debated, this is not even legislation that is due for a floor vote, this is legislation that has already passed, and the Republicans are refusing to fulfill their procedural responsibility to complete the final steps.

This kind of dereliction of duty is unprecedented. In a chamber which affords the widest range of rights to the minority, it is malpractice to refuse to appoint conferees. The Republicans care more about stopping the legislative process in its tracks than doing the business of the people.

Rethinking Immigration Ordinances

A tip-o-the-hat to Raising Kaine for a link to a New York Times article about towns rescinding their anti-immigrant statues, due to the economic impact of those statutes.

With the departure of so many people, the local economy suffered. Hair salons, restaurants and corner shops that catered to the immigrants saw business plummet; several closed. Once-boarded-up storefronts downtown were boarded up again.

Meanwhile, the town was hit with two lawsuits challenging the law. Legal bills began to pile up, straining the town’s already tight budget. Suddenly, many people — including some who originally favored the law — started having second thoughts. - The New York Times

Loudoun county is studying whether to implement such ordinances itself. It appears that the Republican Majority on the Board of Supervisors wants to go out of its way to generate another lawsuit. The various reasons why migration into Loudoun county is not a pressing problem have been discussed at length here, and this story just proves the point that local action on this Federal issue is a remarkably bad idea. At the state level, a Commission on Immigration has been established and is starting work. Since Virginia is a Dillon rule state, it would behoove counties and cities to led the state do its work before taking action on their own.

The town of Riverside provides a cautionary tale about anti-immigrant ordinances.

Indeed, Riverside, a town of 8,000 nestled across the Delaware River from Philadelphia, has already spent $82,000 defending its ordinance, and it risked having to pay the plaintiffs’ legal fees if it lost in court. The legal battle forced the town to delay road paving projects, the purchase of a dump truck and repairs to town hall, officials said. But while Riverside’s about-face may repair its budget, it may take years to mend the emotional scars that formed when the ordinance “put us on the national map in a bad way,” Mr. Conard said. - The New York Times

The Board of Supervisors is studying whether to implement statues that will reduce the county's economic base while increasing the county's legal bills.

Who could possibly think that is a good idea?

The Loudoun Board of Supervisors this afternoon is slated to consider an initiative to instruct local law enforcement and other county agencies to actively identify illegal aliens and to deny services when possible. ... While Delgaudio is the loudest cheerleader for the action, Supervisors Mick Staton (R-Sugarland Run), Bruce Tulloch (R-Potomac), Steve Snow (R-Dulles), Jim Clem (R-Leesburg) and Lori Waters (R-Broad Run) are signed on as co-sponsors. Additionally, Republican candidate for sheriff Greg Alhemann spoke to the board this morning to urge passage. - Leesburg Today

Uncomfortable as it may be for some members of the Board of Supervisors, the fact remains that new immigrants are engines of economic growth. They open businesses, hire people, and provide services which many people would otherwise be unable to afford. While doing this, they live the values of family and community, they carpool (reducing pollution) more than any other segment of the population, and demonstrate a work ethic Ayn Rand would admire. And in return migrants are misrepresented by opportunistic candidates as a problem in need of a solution, instead of what they are: part of the solution to our many problems.

We need to change the Board of Supervisors in November.

GM-UAW Deal - The System Works

After two days on the picket lines, the UAW struck a deal with GM early this morning.

G.M. said the tentative agreement was reached at 3:05 a.m. Eastern. The U.A.W. recessed the strike and said if the contract was not ratified, workers could return to picket lines. The agreement included a memorandum of understanding to establish an independent health care trust, as well as other changes to the national agreement. - The New York Times

This deal should be seen and understood as an example of our system working the way it is supposed to. In the first major UAW strike in thirty years, the union acheived its goals of job guarantees and at least 80 years of health-care solvency for its retirees. (As a perspective, that is longer than Social Security's projected solvency.) Meanwhile, GM acheived its goal of managing its long-term fixed costs, in this case healthcare, in the interest of competing within the global car market.

Many people are skeptical of unions in general and strikes in particular. For many people of my generation, there is no such thing as a "good" strike. My only experience of a strike was the New York City Transit Workers strike of 2005, and my frustration as a resident of New York at the time was directed at the union, not management. This is not to say that the union did not have reasons to demand better wages and benefits, but in a city like New York, where not only is striking illegal, but the harm done by a transit strike falls disproportionately on the working class, thus alienating the strikers from the very people necessary to sustain the strike. In the minds of many, this strike just proved the ineffecacy and hubris of aging (and thus, irrelevant) industrial unions.

Well, for the first time in many of our lives, we have witness a "good" strike, and the progressive movement should be hopeful that the UAW just made the case for unions in the 21st century.

This strike was over issues which hit home to the modern workforce: Outsourcing and long-term healthcare.

This strike was managed well: The message got out that the UAW had extended the strike deadline hour by hour for days before finally calling the strike, thus demonstrating that the UAW was doing their part to avoid a work stoppage.

This strike was quick: Only two days off work means that the people doing the negotiations were working hard, and without sleep, to resolve the strike as quickly as possible. The emerging generation of workers is much more likely to support organizations that are clearly focused on solutions instead of slogans.

The UAW had specific, clear and well-defined goals for these negotiations, they explored every avenue to avoid a strike, and when a strike was finally the only option remaining, they kept it short by redoubling their negotiation efforts during the strike. This is the very definition of an organization dedicated to the well-being of its members. And maybe, an organization which has reawoken the relevance of the union today.

HOT Fees and Congestion

There is an interesting story today which adds to the growing controversy over the High-Occupancy Toll Lanes in Virginia.

Toll Charges Reduce Travel Time, Traffic Jams
A smart introduction of a variable toll charge, with different rates at different departure times, reduces traffic jams. Even small toll charges can exert a large effect on the total travel time, concludes Dutch researcher Dusica Joksimovic. Joksimovic developed a simulation model that can help policy makers to estimate the consequences of various toll charges. The model predicts, where, when and how much toll must be charged for the desired policy outcomes, such as reducing the total travel time of all travellers or maximising the toll incomes (revenues). - Science Daily

If the public policy goal is to reduce congestion and better manage traffic, toll lanes can be a solution, though the public equity of them is subject to debate. This simulation model would be very interesting to run against the proposed HOT lanes on 495 and 395.

Judy Feder's New Website

Judy Feder has a new website at JudyFeder.com, in anticipation of her challenge to Frank Wolf next year.

Like you, I am frustrated with what I see happening to our country. The situation in Iraq is getting worse with no resolution in sight. Health care costs continue to rise, keeping many from the care they need. Life-saving stem cell research is blocked by politics. And our reproductive rights are threatened in Congress and in the Courts.

That's why I ran for Congress in 2006 in Virginia's Tenth District, taking on 26-year Republican incumbent Frank Wolf.

We need to change the direction of our country.

Judy gets extra credit for her link to the 21/51 Campaign. She understands the importance of November 6th, and so does Mark Warner. That's why Judy and Mark have been campaigning for fellow Democrats throughout the state.

While the Republicans have nothing to report, the Democrats have made Virginia the best run state in the nation. After November, we should take that knowhow to Washington with Judy and Mark in 2008.

A Grand Healthcare Bargain? [updated]

The strike by the UAW is an example of the irresistible force meeting the immovable object. Both sides see this as a fight for their very survival. For the unions, it is a question of the survival of the laboring middle class, represented by union jobs and union benefits. For the auto makers, it is a question of survival of the independent American auto company, when faced with competition from global companies with lower costs.

The basic strike issue is one of costs: Who should bear the costs of healthcare across a lifetime? Is it the responsibility of the employer or the employee? Traditionally, it has been the province of the employer, which was a simple and elegant solution for a global economy in which the United States was overwhelmingly dominant, and our standard of living was many multiples of our nearest trading partners. It was the complacency of expecting eternal growth in sales and profits among the Big Three that led them to promise lifetime, best-in-class healthcare as part of their labor deals over the past generation. In a world where national healthcare in other countries serves as an indirect subsidy to industries in those countries (by keeping an important element of labor costs low), our industries suffer a structural cost imbalance with their competition.

But a solution in which the individual themselves is responsible for the cost of their healthcare is not sustainable either. Apparently, many people will choose not to purchase health insurance, although the cost of treating them will still be borne by the nation in the case of an emergency. This can be seen by the number of people who do not, in effect, choose to purchase health insurance but do choose to purchase cable or satellite television service. In 2006, approximately 87% of households had cable or satellite television, but only 84.1% had health insurance. (Of that 84.1%, only 59% was employer-provided health insurance. And it should be noted that the uninsured rate in the South was over 18%.) The uninsured do not go without healthcare as much as they go without preventative care. In emergencies and critical situations, they are served, and their costs are often picked up by the taxpayer, state or hospital itself.

After eight years of Republican governance, the corporate interests of America are strong and used to limited regulation, and deference from their government. So far, our country's business interests have been afraid, in a way, of what the future holds with the rise of the progressives.

Progressives should make a grand bargain with corporations. The corporations agree to pay their fair share of taxes (more on that in a moment) in exchange for some form of national health insurance system.

If we examine the actual cost of care per person, across a lifetime, the costs are not that high. According to the NIH, the average cost of healthcare per person, across the course of a lifetime, is $316,579 (in 2000 dollars). To be conservative, we can add an additional 25% and the lifetime cost becomes just about $400,000. If we assume the average worker will work for 40 years, (22 to 62, for example), that means lifetime healthcare costs are around $10,000/working year. That is approximately $416/paycheck/person. If that is the case, why is it that so many of us are paying so much more than that for our healthcare?

The fact is the health insurance market is remarkably inefficient. Insurance companies have incentives to keep healthy people and drop sick people. The $400,000 number is a national average, and only works on the great aggregate. When you start breaking the market up into segments, costs range much more wildly. Hence, the great variance in coverage and costs.

This is not necessarily a case for a universal health insurance plan, with a single payer that is the Federal Government. It is a case for a collective market for health insurance. With a bigger pool, the costs are more evenly distributed, and thus more easily managed. The government needs to insure that a) the pool(s) of insured are wide enough and diverse enough that no insurer can gain a competitive advantage by microsegmenting the market by declining coverage to the sick and b) the catastrophic costs of health care, which so frequently lead to individual bankruptcy and steep rises in company premiums, are no longer waiting in the wings. (This idea, of course, was the essence ofJohn Kerry's plan in 2004.) I am completely agnostic, however, as to the exact nature of the healthcare plan. I could care less for how it happens, as long as everyone gets coverage, and there is no discrimination of coverage based on ability to pay.

Which begs the question "how to pay for it." For this there is a simple solution I feel would benefit everyone: Make companies report the same books to the IRS that they report to Wall Street.

In spite of studying some management and finance in graduate school, I find it difficult to understand how a company can report no profit to the IRS and perhaps even get a refund on their R&D costs, and yet report excellent profits and growth to Wall Street. I propose a simple solution: corporate taxes are assessed on the profit reported to Wall Street, period. I know the question is more complicated than that, but this is why we have legal and accounting experts to work out the details. I expect many tax deductions would need to be eliminated, but I suspect that the value of those deductions in terms of reduced taxes is far less than the health care costs that the corporations pay today, and will pay going forward.

That is the deal, America agrees to carry the cost of healthcare for Americans, and in return corporations pay their taxes based on their actual profits. Companies take the gamble that they will save more in health care costs than they gain from tax deductions. America takes the gamble that a broader pool of insurees will introduce a lower average cost per insuree.

It is only an idea, and possibly not the best idea. But it is an idea nonetheless.

[Update] Apparently, the big picture context of the UAW strike is on other people's minds too. Dan Neil had a commentary on Marketplace on the subject: "The UAW's fight is our fight." It's a great piece of analysis which examines how the UAW's fight for healthcare and job security is the front line in the battle for the American workforce.

[Update 2]And kos makes the point about healthcare even stronger:

# I've been dealing with pain for two weeks because Blue Shield won't approve the CT Scan I need to find out what exactly is wrong with me. And all Bush can talk about is getting more people on private insurance? The hell with the HMOs. They haven't proven to be the solution. (And don't get me started with Eli's birth, and their refusal to pay for half the bills unless we hounded them to death. Single payer, baby!

Orbital Sciences Win For Dulles

After the stories of VW and AOL, it is great to read about a win for Dulles.

Orbital Sciences, a rocket and space technology manufacturer for the government and military, is embarking on a major expansion of its headquarters in Dulles, adding as many as four new buildings and about 600 jobs to its campus. - The Washington Post

Of course, this win doesn't occupy any of the already built office space along Rt. 28 or Rt. 7. It involves new construction, which is not a bad thing in and of itself, but is a consideration as evidenced by concerns about traffic in the area. Nonetheless, a win is a win. 600 high-tech jobs in Loudoun county means at least $40,000,000 in new personal income to the County. It means a broader economic base.

Perhaps best of all, the jobs are cool.

In Dulles, Orbital's mechanical, electrical, thermal and software engineers, technicians and scientists specialize in small space and rocket systems, designing products such as small earth orbit satellites for communications and broadcasting. They also design low earth orbit spacecraft, which includes remote sensing and scientific research and planetary probes to explore deep space. - Leesburg Today

Bravo Loudoun!

Push Poll Pledge

The Democratic Party is the party of of good government.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Contact: Tim Buchholz
Vice Chairman, Loudoun Democratic Committee

Email: vicechair2@loudoundemocrats.org

DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES FOR BOARD OF SUPERVISOR
WILL NOT USE DECEPTIVE PUSH POLLING

September 24, 2007, Leesburg, Virginia -- Today, the Democratic Candidates for Loudoun County Board of Supervisors unanimously pledge to not use the common but deceptive practice of “Push Polling.” In today’s tough political environment, where changing political winds are catching some politicians flat-footed, the pressure to win can drive people to a clearly misleading tactic such as Push Polling. The seven Democratic Candidates for Loudoun County Board of Supervisors believe that honest leadership and good governance begin with clean and honest campaigns; therefore, pledging not to use this deceptive practice just makes common sense.

“We talked about this practice and quickly decided that push polling is extremely manipulative and ethically corrupt. It is practices like this that have turned off many voters. We will not be part of that, ” said Stevens Miller, Candidate for Dulles Board of Supervisors, running against incumbent Supervisor Steve Snow (R-Dulles).

In a recent meeting, Supervisor Lori Waters (R-Broad Run) said, “If the board planned to condemn the use of such negative polling, it should ask other candidates for supervisor to do the same.” Her opponent, Phyllis Randall responded, “My condemning the practice of Push Polling is not contingent on my opponents also condemning this harmful and negative practice. I will do the correct thing despite what my opponents may or may not choose to do.”

The seven Democratic Candidates for Loudoun County Board of Supervisors are:

Susan Klimek Buckley – Sugarland Run
C. Kelly Burk – Leesburg
Supervisor Sarah R. “Sally” Kurtz – Catoctin
Andrea C. McGimsey – Potomac
Stevens Miller – Dulles
Phyllis J. Randall – Broad Run
Jeanne R. West – Sterling

According to the American Association of Political Consultants (AAPC) “push-polling” is the increasingly common practice “where phone calls aimed at voter persuasion are dishonestly presented as surveys of public opinion.” The AAPC's Ethics Committee unanimously agreed that "push-polls" violate their restriction against "any activity which would corrupt or degrade the practice of political campaigning." Because practitioners of a "push-poll" scam communicate inaccurate information about an opponent, this practice also violates the AAPC's rules against false and misleading attacks.

All candidates of good character should take the Push Poll Pledge, and condemn any organization which uses Push Polling. If Push Polling has been used on a candidate's behalf, that candidate should immediately and widely condemn the practice and bring the perpetrator to light.

Flat Tax Critique

For people interested in the idea of a flat tax, there is an interesting critique up on Democratic Central:

There are many basic principles of political economy that this scheme would challenge.

First, we have held it as a basic principle that we will tax the rich at a higher marginal rate than we tax the poor, on the theory that they are better able to afford it. Put in simplistic terms, the extra importance to a family budget of an additional $100 is much greater if the family only makes $30,000 a year than if the family makes $300,000 a year. Even if the tax was the same in absolute dollars, it will bite more when paid by a family earning $30,000. The so-called FairTax abandons the principle of progressive taxation.

Second, the premise of the estate and gift tax is that it is not good for families to be able to preserve vast wealth and to hand it down from generation to generation. One of the philosophical underpinnings of the estate and gift tax is the notion that "you can't take it with you." This bill could be thought of as the "Preserve Paris Hilton's Family Money Act". - "Virgil Goode and his Flat Tax" cvillelaw at Democratic Central

The article goes into excellent detail discussing the impact of a flat tax on the current economic segmentation of our society. Well worth a read.

State Senate Candidates Debate

Many thanks to the Loudoun County Democratic Committee for getting this debate information out:

Esther Trask, president of AARP of Loudoun, has announced a debate of candidates for state senate on Tuesday, October 2, at 1:00 PM, at the Leesburg Senior Center (next to Morningside House, the assisted living center near Market Station). AARP has received acceptances from all of the candidates for the 27th district except the elusive Jill Vogel (who has not replied yet). Issues for those of us 50 and over will be one focus area, however the AARP would like a big turn out of citizens of all ages, including the affected "sandwich generation".

Date: Tues. Oct. 2
Time: 1:00 PM
Place: Leesburg Senior Center
215 Depot Ct. SE
Leesburg, Va., 20176
703-737-8039

Solar Panel Tipping Point?

A tip-o-the-hat to Slashdot for this story on the advent of relatively inexpensive solar panels with commendable efficiency. A little digging unearthed this detailed story on the rise of a solar power start-up from The Coloradan.

The solar panels are produced for less than $1 per watt, and are expected to reduce the cost of solar electricity to about the same cost as traditionally generated electricity. AVA Solar Inc., is expected to produce enough solar panels to generate 200 megawatts per year by the end of 2008. Based on average household use, 200 megawatts will power 40,000 U.S. homes. Consumers will pay about $2 per watt, about half of the current cost of solar panels and close to the cost of being on the traditional electrical grid. - The Coloradan

The key to the solar power revolution will be the point at which power generated off of solar cells matches the price point of power acquired from the electrical grid. When that happens, and this development means that solar technology is within striking distance of this critical price point, society can expect the rollout of solar cells to commercial and public buildings (and even homes) to accelerate.

The rollout of point-electrical solutions is critical to the long-term viability of our civilization. The capacity of our power grid is limited, but our demand for electricity is not. (Go read Bacon's Rebellion, which discussed the power grid issue in deep detail.) If we want to prevent a proliferation of power lines and high-tension wires across the piedmont, we need to implement local point solutions for power which will even out supply even as we implement something like revenue decoupling to increase conservation and moderate demand.

In a situation where demand is peaking, and brownouts or rolling blackouts may be necessary, building-based solar power can provide bridge energy for important facilities which may not be critical (think office towers, not hospitals). During times of lower demand (the spring and fall, for example) solar power can be used to significantly reduce the power demand, and power cost, of these buildings. But none of this makes sense as long as the price of power from solar cells is two or three times that of the national electrical grid.

The advent of price-competitive solar cells is critical to the future of green construction. We Americans have shown that we do not choose to pay extra, or reduce our comfort, in order to live green, so any effective green solution will need to provide the same quality and comfort as a non-green alternative, at the same price as the non-green alternative. Solar electricity is an important part of that answer, because electricity is completely fungible, regardless of its generation source. Thus, the only barrier to widespread acceptance of solar power is the cost per unit.

None of this takes into account what might be the greatest benefit of price-competitive solar power: economic growth. The Coloradan article makes this point clearly.

Although AVA Solar plans to expand its production in the coming years, the company wants to stay connected with the Fort Collins community. “All the founders are products of CSU and have a strong desire to remain close to the local community,” Kanjorski said.

We are present at the advent of a brand-new, high-tech industry. And this industry promises to both save money, and make money, for people who get involved with it. This is the kind of industry that Governor Kaine had in mind in his Virginia Energy Plan.

We can only hope that the County won't miss-out on this opportunity, too.

Local Veteran Emails Sen. Warner

This is the content of a note sent by a local veteran, here in Leesburg, to Senator John Warner.

Sir, I was very disappointed to see that you voted against the very sensible and modest bi-partisan Webb-Hagel Bill that would have rested our troops between deployment to Iraq. As a former infantry officer who had the honor of serving under General Creighton Abrams, I learned as a 2LT that "Taking care of your troops" is number 1 in accomplishing your mission. We now say the words "Support Our Troops" but then we don't give them adequate equipment or rest. We say we are at War Against Terrorism but we don't sacrifice (Congress still takes their lengthly vacations, our borders are unguarded, we middle class get deeper in debt, the rich get tax breaks and contractors get richer than ever). I really would like to know what your rationale was for not allowing this measure to be debated on the floor of the Senate. I really thought that you were for the troops. Also, where is the "up or down" vote that you Republicans clamored for in the past?

Disappointed in Leesburg.

The Good Fight - An Apologia

A warning - this is a post about bloggers and blogging, and may only be of interest and use to members of that community.

So, though I suppose it will matter to noone, I'm leaving the fight to Lowell and Gray Haven and others. I quit because I don't believe there is enough Palmolive to wash away the slime of this cowardly compromise from my hands. Let the Republicans twist the moral bootlickers any way they will; I have enough money that financial gain will be mine under the party I have despised for years, a party I voted against always because I believe in social justice. Now that the belief has been betrayed, I'll just clip my bond coupons and wait for the next surrender.

Bye bye. - Soccerdem on RaisingKaine

There is an excellent article from the New York Times Magazine about Justice John Paul Stevens. In it, he is entitled "The Dissenter." In the course of the article, it is revealed that his father was wrongfully convicted of a crime, his uncle committed suicide, his family lost its business and its livelihood in the Depression, and his own career after overcoming these amazing obstacles of his youth was a series of experiences that shaped his judicial mindset, including judicial corruption, and leading to his vigorous role as a dissenter and advocate for positions on the Court which would put him strongly in the van of Democratic politics and policies in the Old Dominion.

At each step of the amazing journey that has been his life, and at each turn of the court to the right, Justice Stevens has seen his own views denied, his own positions lose, and his role more and more frequently limited to that of dissent, in one manner or another. He has had a thousand chances in his life to say "Enough, I give up. This system, this nation, has failed me. A pox on all their houses!" And in doing so no one would have questioned that choice.

But he never did.

Stevens, however, is an improbable liberal icon. “I don’t think of myself as a liberal at all,” he told me during a recent interview in his chambers, laughing and shaking his head. “I think as part of my general politics, I’m pretty darn conservative.” - The New York Times Magazine

This reformed Republican, this "conservative" holding the line for liberal America quietly shames us all.

We are six weeks from an election which will define the playing field for the next decade. We are six weeks from an election on which Tim Kaine is betting his political career so that his children (and ours) will have a commonwealth that looks out for the common wealth. We are six week sfrom a day on which our neighbors go the the polls and decide whether to vote down hate and fear and radical agendas.

We are six weeks away, and people give up now?

And the problem is not limited to giving up. Every day, we progressives attack each other for not being pure enough on our pet issues. From recycling water bottles to funding the Iraq war, there are a thousand - a million - perfectly good reasons to snipe and snark and declare one another impure. And the reasons for not doing so are so ephemeral, so intangible, as to be easily ignored: unity, progress, hope.

Good-bye America ...you are not the country that I love and I finally realized no matter how much I sacrifice, I can’t make you be that country unless you want it.

It’s up to you now. - Cindy Sheehan, DailyKos, "Good Riddance Attention Whore"

And yet, people give up hope after only nine months of Democratic majorities in the Congress (A majority of only 50.5 in the Senate!). Members of the progressive blogosphere are calling out Democrats with purity-troll-like efforts, and if those Democrats do not respond, the complaints echo for epochs across the Internet.

We are googlebombing ourselves.

And amidst all the noise, we are, ourselves, doing the very thing we so frequently accuse the media of doing, we are ignoring the story, burying the lead, and reporting on the process, not the principle.

Have we all forgotten that the Iraq war could end tomorrow if only President Bush ordered the troops home? The problems we are calling on our Representatives to solve are problems created by President Bush. Yes, many Democrats voted for the war, but President Bush is the one who asked for it. Yes, some Democrats voted against MoveOn.org, but the Republicans sponsored it. Yes, some Democrats voted with Bush on the FISA bill, but The Executive proposed it.

Our fight is with the Republicans, folks. Regardless of how uncomfortable we may be here in the Democratic Party some times, we began the fight to remake the Party, we Crashed The Gate, we have only ourselves to blame if we squander this opportunity. Lest the revolution devours its own children.

Perhaps it is just easier to give up once a single victory is achieved. Perhaps it is to hard to be part of the governing solution, governing which is messy, filled with compromise and half-measures and years of arm-twisting and dealmaking and actual setbacks before change occurs, and the triumph can only be seen in retrospect, years later. If you doubt that, I would share with you a personal story.

Earlier this week, I watched Eddie Murphy: Delirious with my family. I remember it being hilarious when I was younger. Rewatching it today, there were many moments that just made me cringe. The ideas expressed had changed from being funny to just being offensive. (And I was a proud member of the Virginia Pep Band, so I know from offensive versus funny.)

Progress often happens when we are not looking. It is the Republicans who expect staged milestones of freedom's victory. We Democrats know (or we should) that success is measured in 5% higher graduation rates among city high schools, in 10 million fewer Americans without health insurance, in 100,000 Virginia kids with access to better pre-school. Success takes time, and patience, and sometimes, success takes failure (Mark Warner 1996, Mark Warner 2001).

Of course we should tell our Representatives how we feel, of course we should hold them to account, but we should also realize that they are representative. And guess what that means, folks? It means that they are set up to disappoint us, perhaps even more than half the time.

Disappointment is as much a part of democracy as triumph. Get used to it.

I, for one, refuse to be a bandwagon Democrat. I refuse to believe that the fact that Jim Webb won in November 2006, means that all my candidates, policies and positions are equally valid and viable, for the rest of my life. I refuse to take my ball and go home, just because my team let me down.

It's my team damnit, and I'll fight for it. Thankyouverymuch.

Because my team lives my principles, as best they can, most of the time. And that's what I expect, "because in a democracy, the whores are us. - P.J. O'Rourke"

Yard Sign Day! - Leesburg

Just a reminder that Monday, September 24th, is the first day residents of Leesburg are allowed to put out yard signs.



Show your pride, support your candidates, decorate your lawn!

Tim Hugo's Dishonesty

When you have nothing to run on, run on hearsay and allegations. Tim Hugo does.

Leesburg Today's Housing Editorial

We are very lucky in Loudoun County to have multiple local papers covering a variety of local issues. Of them, Leesburg Today provides some of the most in-depth coverage of local issues of any local paper in Virginia. This depth and breadth of coverage frequently leads to true understanding of the circumstances found in Loudoun County. This understanding was demonstrated in the "Affordability Options" editorial in Friday's paper:

The board of supervisors is taking a broad approach in its efforts to increase the availability of housing affordable to folks who work in the county. It may be too broad. Given the scale of development that will happen in Loudoun in coming decades it is difficult to imagine a scenario where county tax dollars can do more to address the problem than could a well-structured zoning code and construction incentives. - Leesburg Today

It is interesting that Leesburg Today agrees with the solution that Kelly Burk has been advocating throughout this campaign season - linking growth issues to zoning and development. Councilmember Burk has been working on integrating solutions and policies (instead of grandstanding and half-measures), throughout her public career.

A bigger question than the right candidates on November 6th is that of affordable housing in and of itself. In a moment of increasing foreclosures, economic uncertainty and general unease with the direction of our country, housing is something citizens are increasingly concerned about. Many of our neighbors have a majority of their family net worth tied up in their homes. Affordable housing and economic security are interrelated issues. The more stable our neighborhoods, which derive from long-term residents whose families grow up and go to school in the same area, the better off we all are. This means that we need to pay close attention when our neighbors are priced out of their own homes. We need to pay attention when our teachers and firemen cannot afford to live in Loudoun. We need to pay attention to each other, and our community well-being.

Sen. Leahy on Habeas Corpus

From an email distributed by Sen. Leahy's office today.

Congress made a mistake of historical proportions when it suspended habeas rights a few years ago -- and unfortunately Senate Republicans made another mistake yesterday by mounting a filibuster and failing to allow us to restore it. The good news is we've picked up 8 more votes since the Senate voted to suspend habeas corpus last fall, but we still need 4 more Senators to reach a filibuster-proof 60 vote margin.

Four more Senators? I vote:

Senator Warner (not that one)

Senator Shaheen

Senator Allen (not that one either)

Senator Udall

And that's just to start.

[update]Oops. Sen. Sununu actually voted for the restoration of Habeas, and the Webb amendment. He must be quite frightened at his prospects in 2008. So let's add Senator McWherter just to even things out.

Retaining AOL - Wishing Really Hard

Apparently the plan to retain AOL in Loudoun County consists of wishing really, really hard. LoudounExtra has the story.

Loudoun officials said this week that although they regret AOL’s decision to move its corporate headquarters from Dulles to New York, they remain optimistic the company will maintain a strong presence in the county. - "County Still Counting on Presence of AOL"

The Executive has shown us how effective "remaining optimistic" can be as a go-forward strategy. It is pretty much the entire reason we are where we are in Iraq. "Remaining optimistic" is not a plan, it is what is said when the effort is already lost. Baseball teams remain optimistic that they'll win it next year. Governments should not remain optimistic that their economic base will be retained, especially when their neighboring counties are expanding their businesses.

And there is evidence that the government knows this, but is too embarrassed to tell us.

A Loudoun official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said she was told by AOL executives that the move will affect fewer than 100 people. Calls to AOL seeking exact numbers were not returned Tuesday.

That's right, we are expected to base our remaining optimism on a county official who will not be quoted by name and unreturned phone calls to AOL. The AOL's executives would not be quoted on the record that only 100 people would be effected, but they were willing to tell a nameless County official that. It sounds like the officials are being managed like mushrooms. And someone who knows a thing or two about the local high-tech economy was willing to say so, on the record.

Bobbie Kilberg, chief executive of the Northern Virginia Technology Council, a membership and trade association for the technology industry, said the long-term effects of the headquarters move could be more pronounced.

“When you take the leadership of a company and move it to another city, logic tells you that over time there will be a diminution of the jobs that are left there, either because more functions over time will switch to the new headquarters or employees will leave for other opportunities. That’s basic Business 101,” Kilberg said.

Apparently, the majority on the Board of Supervisors not only flunk governing, they also flunk business. Loudoun needs better leadership.

An Interlude - Coffee

One of my new favorite things - a Greenberry's half-and-half.

Since their "light" and their "decaf" coffee is frequently the same flavor, this morning I got half "light" and half "decaf" in the mug. Thus allowing me to drink more coffee without having more caffeine.

In solidarity with Runo.

Vote To Support The Troops

Our Democratic representatives in Virginia have always supported the troops, and have frequently been ahead of others in extending the hand of support to the soldiers and their families. From Senator Webb fighting to give our soldiers as much time at home as they spend abroad, to Delegate Dave Poisson proposing that the children of veterans be given certain privileges when applying to Virginia's public universities, our military has been in the hearts and minds of our representatives.

Now there is news out of Richmond that the Democractic candidates for the Virginia Assembly are making our neighbors in the military a top priority.

HOUSE DEMOCRATIC LEADERS UNVEIL VETERANS' BILL OF RIGHTS

Provide additional benefits for military and veterans serving our country

Richmond, VA--- House Democratic Leader Ward Armstrong and House Democratic Caucus Chairman Brian Moran announced they would support a Virginia Military Veterans' Bill of Rights.

The MVBR includes the Commonwealth's commitment to provide quality medical and counseling care, to protect against financial hardship from service, to ensure access to education opportunities, to protect military families financially while serving overseas, to ensure they received high quality healthcare, and to provide additional benefits for families of fallen soldiers.

While the Republicans are squabbling over irrelevant issues and run from their records, the Democrats unite behind our neighbors serving abroad. This means that electing people like Karen Schultz, Dave Poisson, Mark Herring, Bruce Roemmelt and Marty Martinez will ensure our veterans are given their just due for their service to us all.

Iraq is a voting issue in November. Virginia will have to care for her sons and daughters returning from war regardless of your opinion of the war. Virginia Democrats are standing up to provide that support, all you need to provide is your vote.

Karen Schultz Will Debate

Jill Holtzman-Vogel, Republican candidate for state Senate in the 27th District, has declined to attend tonight's League of Women Voter's forum at 7 p.m. at the Carver Center in Purcellville.

"The Loudoun League of Women Voters is very disappointed that the voters of Loudoun County will not get the chance to hear Jill Holtzman Vogel directly answer questions regarding issues that are important to our county," the League stated in its announcement. "Our style of forum uniquely combines the use of area reporters and editors as questioners, followed by an open microphone for members of the audience to ask questions directly to the candidates." - Leesburg Today

Ms. Holtzman-Vogel's absence continues a 2007-2008 trend of Republicans avoiding situations where they might actually talk to people who disagree with them. Raising Kaine has a post today on this subject. In it there is an excellent quote from Tavis Smiley, "When you reject every black invitation and every brown invitation you receive, is that a scheduling issue or is it a pattern?" (With a tip-o-the-hat to The Richmond Democrat)

In contrast, the Democratic candidates this year, and for 2008, have attended a wide variety of debates in a wide variety of forums. For example, Hillary Clinton went before YearlyKos and explained herself to a crowd not predisposed to listen to her. Similarly, Democratic Candidates are attending Chamber of Commerce events, in spite of the fact that most Chambers are predisposed towards Republican candidates.

The Republican candidate's absence from tonights debate just reinforces the hypothesis that Republicans do not know how to govern, while Democrats engage the public and get things done.

Support Karen Shultz for the 27th District.

Loudoun Education Pledge

The Washington Post's "LoudounExtra" site carries this story today: Democrats Criticize GOP on Growth, Spending.

Democrats running for the Loudoun County Board of Supervisors and those endorsed by the party for the School Board today pledged to improve public education in the county by slowing growth and collaborating more closely during budget decisions if elected Nov. 6.

Leesburg Today also covered the press conference.

Randall pointed to the board of supervisors' [sic] decision during budget negotiations earlier this year to push back the opening date for the new Monroe Technology Center and reduce the amount of money set aside for the facility from $115 million to $89 million.

"These decisions were made without the consultation or knowledge of the school board members or school administrators," she said. "This underscores that these two bodies do not even attempt to work in concert for the benefit of our students."

Our Democratic candidates pledged to create an enhanced standing committee of School Board members and Supervisors to collaboratively make decisions about school budgeting. Kelly Burk led the way.

“We are here today to discuss issues that impact Loudoun citizens at every level -- parent, student, teacher and taxpayer,” said Kelly Burk, who is challenging Supervisor Jim E. Clem (R) in the Leesburg District. “There are critical education issues that the present board majority members, the gang of six, are ignoring.”

Councilmember Burk has demonstrated that she knows what she is talking about by taking the lead to establish a working committee between the Town of Leesburg and the residents east of town who disagree with the high water rates charged them by the town. This committee is working together to find a solution to the dispute which has led to so much hand-wringing (but no solutions) on the Board of Supervisors. Our Democratic candidates know how to work together and get things done.

(I am a volunteer for Kelly Burk's BoS Campaign.)

The Conservative Mind

Runo sent a link to a Guardian article, which discussed a recent study of the conservative mind versus the liberal mind.

A study funded by the US government has concluded that conservatism can be explained psychologically as a set of neuroses rooted in "fear and aggression, dogmatism and the intolerance of ambiguity".

As if that was not enough to get Republican blood boiling, the report's four authors linked Hitler, Mussolini, Ronald Reagan and the rightwing talkshow host, Rush Limbaugh, arguing they all suffered from the same affliction.

All of them "preached a return to an idealised past and condoned inequality".

As it happens, the NIH is deeply relevant to my life, so I was able to examine a brief on the actual study, as published in Nature Neuroscience.

The full title of the study is "Neurocognitive correlates of liberalism and conservatism," and it is important to note that in this study, the "thing" that was actually being studied was the Anterior Cinculate Cortex, a part of the brain which deals with the congnitive response to ambiguity and doubt. For example, it activates when people win or lose at gambling. As the study notes:

"Behavioral reserach suggest that psychological differences between conservatives and liberals map onto the widely-studied self-regulatory process of conflict monitoring. Conflict monitoring is a general mechanism for detecting when one's habitual response tendency is mismatched with responses required by the current situation, [Emphasis mine] and this function has been associated with neurocognitive activity in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC)."

In essence, the study sought to tell whether a liberal mind was more likely to quickly adjust its habits in the face of new stimuli than a conservative mind. Of course, the assumption is that responses should change in the face of differing stimuli, and that there is no inherent value in continuing to say "yes" when the correct response is "no." (Or, perhaps, believing that Saddam had something to do with 9/11.)

Specifically, the subjects were conditioned to do something in response to a stimulus, and were required to forgo that action in response to a different stimulus. It was a study of inhibition in the face of habit. The results were that the liberal mind appears to be faster to change its habits in the face of new and different stimuli than the conservative mind.

"This association suggests that a more conservative orientation is related to greater persistence in habitual response pattern, despite signals that this response pattern should change."

In short hand, a conservative mind is more likely to stay the course, even when presented with a cliff ahead.

The practical application of this study is that in times of change and upheaval, when the correct course of action may change from day to day, we are better off with liberal minds in charge, since they would be more likely to recognize that their standard response needs to change. One would imagine this could be relevant come November.

But that's just how I see it.

Migration Numbers - Concurring Figures

Loudoun Force has a new post up about the cost of incarceration of illegal immigrants.

To determine the fraction of the FY2007 total costs that can be attributed to undocumented immigrants, we use the FY2007 daily stats provided by Kraig Troxell, in which he stated, “As of the time of the report, out of 461 inmates in the Adult Detention Center (ADC), 15 had ICE detainers.” This figure also corresponds with new data received at the time of this posting. This means that on a daily basis about 3.25% of the prison population is undocumented. Taking 3.25% of the $10 Million FY2007 results in an actual cost of $325,000. - Loudoun Force

The calculations done here last week estimated that the undocumented migrant population of Loudoun was around 3.2%. And now there is evidence that 3.25% of the prison population is undocumented. This is compelling evidence that immigration is not a critical issue to Loudoun County's future, but merely a scare tactic in a time when the Republican leadership is out of ideas.

If you look at each and every one of the reasons that people believe migrants are hurting the U.S. you'll find that there is are much more effective ways to make a difference than kicking out migrants. It just so happens that it's easy to blame migrants. A migrant is a voiceless other. It's easy to take out your frustration on an enemy because it stops you from taking a long hard look at yourself. - Immigration Orange

Restoring Habeas Corpus

It is far too early to choose a candidate to support for the Democratic Presidential Nomination in 2008. With the importance of this year's Virginia legislative elections, Virginia's Democrats should have their eyes on the 21/51 prize.

However, the national spotlight of a Presidential campaign can be a useful tool in focusing attention on critical, if often misunderstood, issues, like Habeas Corpus.

At the beginning of August, Congress passed a six-month update of FISA, which gave The Executive the authority to wiretap Americans without their knowledge or a court-order, as long as two special people pinky-swore it was really necessary. This bill expires in February, and the Congressional leadership promised a full debate on surveillance and privacy before that time. This debate comes just in time to co-incide with the debate over the Habeas Corpus Restoration Act. Reforming FISA, and restoring Habeas Corpus are two elements of the same issue, reinforcing our civil liberties.

At Restoring-Habeas.org, voters can sign on to be a "citizen co-sponsor" of the Habeas Corpus Restoration Act (in its incarnation as an amendment to other bills), and use the tools on the site to contact their Senator to urge their support for the bill. (And while on the phone urge support for the Webb Amendment on droop rotations as well!)

"It is during our most challenging and uncertain moments that our Nation's commitment to due process is most severely tested; and it is in those times that we must preserve our commitment at home to the principles for which we fight abroad." - Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor, Hamdi v. Rumsfeld, 2004

Our civil liberties erode because citizens of good conscience do nothing.

Will you do nothing?

Karen Schultz Spends Wisely

There is a great diary over at RaisingKaine summarizing the financial status of many of the competitive state Senate races this year.

District 27:
Democrat: Karen Schultz:
Raised: 147,690
Spent: 70,000
Difference: 77,690

Republican: Jill Holtzman-Vogel:
Raised: 195,286
Spent: 125,850
LOANS TAKEN: 50,000
Difference: 19,436

Democratic money advantage: 58,254

Now this race just warms my heart. Mrs. Schultz is a wonderful person, and her opponent is a money spending machine. After raising over HALF A MILLION for the primary and spending all but 100K to win against an indicted felon, Holtzman-Vogel now needs a loan! Senator Karen Schultz, I can't wait.

What scares me is Holtzman-Vogel's willingness to spend her contributors' money, willy-nilly and take out loans to advance her career. If this is how she treats the money given to her campaign by supporters what will she do when she gets her hands on our tax dollars?

In contrast, Karen Schultz has been far more frugal with her supporters' money, and far more generous with her own time, as she attends a variety of events and get togethers. But that is what we would expect from someone who has served honestly and diligently in her local community for decades.

Going to Bat for Marty Martinez [updated]

All too often in politics, votes are cast against a candidate, and change occurs away from one party or set of ideas. In the 33rd Assembly District voters have an opportunity to vote for a candidate, and move towards the future of Virginia.

(The 33rd District of the House of Delegates)
Marty Martinez is an incredible candidate for Delegate. From his dedication to family and community (growing up in a family with nine kids), to his service and leadership on the Leesburg Town Council, Marty exemplifies the Virginia that we are building together. Councilman Martinez has spent his life getting involved in the little things that make our lives better. He works with the Boy Scouts, he's a baseball coach, he was president of his local PTA, and he commutes to Herndon for his job, like so many of us.


(Marty Martinez and family)
Marty is a co-founder of La Voz of Loudoun. He is not running to be the first hispanic elected to the House of Delegates, but that is only because he is a good and decent man who believes that people should vote for the right man for the job, not a category. Marty exemplifies what it means to be an American, in making your own reputation and your own path, regardless of your background or starting point.

But it will be a great moment in the history of the Old Dominion when we elect Marty to the House of Delegates. In a year when the Republicans are set on dividing citizens from each other, and running a campaign based on lies and fear, Marty Martinez stands ready to serve all Virginians. The future of our Commonwealth is vibrant and diverse and Marty Martinez means leadership into that future. A victory in for Marty in 2007 is a victory for our our common identity. So go to bat for Marty, because he is going to bat for us.

[update] For a great introduction to Marty, go read the liveblog he did on RaisingKaine on August 15th. Marty came online and answered direct questions from readers and spoke about his thoughts on abuser fees, education, and why he's running. Marty should be commended for his willingness to engage directly with citizens, for the record, online.

An Interlude - A Passing

Rest in Peace, Robert Jordan.

Loudoun Loses AOL to New York

While Supervisor Steven Snow was busy taking secret meetings with business leaders about traffic on Waxpool Road, one of the biggest businesses in his district was planning on leaving town.

AOL is moving its corporate headquarters from Dulles to New York, the company announced today, ending a saga that helped cement Washington as a center of the technology boom but also gave rise to corporate scandal and ill-fated dealmaking. - The Washington Post

The article goes on to explain that most local employees are staying, but senior executives are moving to New York.

AOL's senior decision makers are leaving town, which makes them much less likely to take the concerns and interests of Loudoun into effect when making decisions about the future of AOL. To put it more simply, it is a lot easier to fire a block of employees if you don't have to run into them in Wegmans.

Once again, the Board of Supervisors, and to a related extent, Congressman Frank Wolf, dropped the ball on a critical element of the local economy. Between foreclosures, VW moving to Herndon, Greenway toll increases and the news about AOL, is there any issue of the local economy that the Republican majority on the Board of Supervisors has not mismanaged?

Let's elect Stevens Miller to represent Dulles in November. Mr. Snow has lost AOL, and with it the privilege of serving on the Board of Supervisors.

Greenway Toll Increases

Most everything rational that can be said quickly about the coming increases to the tolls on the Greenway has already been said over on Loudoun County Traffic.

The Virginia State Corporation Commission (SCC) has approved a revised toll structure for the privately owned Dulles Greenway that raises the maximum base toll ceiling for cars from $3 to $4. The modified toll structure is effective October 1. However, the new maximum allowable toll will not be reached until 2012.

A couple of quick thoughts.

- 5 years may seem like a long time, but it's not.

- The Greenway is only part of our transportation system. Higher tolls are a symptom of the fundamental ailment that is the ratio of roads to cars to miles traveled.

- All our issues are interrelated. Affordable housing, transportation, development, economic growth and diversity are all questions of growth and equitable allocation of benefits and costs. We cannot address one problem without considering the others.

If we solve our transportation problem, our individual costs go up and our quality of life may suffer. If we prioritize the preservation of low taxes and rural character, we doom the existing roads to gridlock and steeply erode the quality of life in some districts, if we prioritize property and home values, we price our teachers and public servants out of the county they serve.

At the end of the day, someone is going to be unhappy. The question, as in all questions of political economy, is who?

Leesburg, Lawsuits and Developers

If a local government is going to go to court, it is critical that they win. After all, government spending is not as productive as private spending, and lawsuits probably retard rather than enhance productivity growth. This is why it is both good an important that the Town of Leesburg has been upheld by the Supreme Court of Virginia in its efforts to stand up to developers.

The Supreme Court upheld the town's appeal of Judge James Chamblin 2006 mandamus order directing the town to accept Centex Home's Meadowbrook subdivision application for review. The town planning staff rejected the application, saying it was incomplete. - Leesburg Today

This is a significant ruling, as the successful appeal of Judge Chamblin's order means that the days of developers bullying local governments into approving projects through the threat of lawsuits are dwindling. The ruling continues the trend of returning the public to the center of discussions about development. It should be viewed in context with the anti-SLAPP suit bill put forward by Sen. Herring earlier this year.

When a developer brings a lawsuit against a citizen for speaking out against a rezoning, it's called a SLAPP suit - Strategic Lawsuit Against Public Participation. These suits rarely succeed in court, but they can succeed in keeping citizens away from the microphone at public hearings. A bill introduced by Loudoun's freshman senator, Mark Herring (D-eastern Loudoun), aims to protect ordinary citizens from "abusive lawsuits," the real intent of which is to keep citizens out of the public process. The bill passed the Senate without a single "nay" vote. - TimesCommunity.com

The Virginia Supreme Court ruling reinforces the role of local planning departments in the development of the areas over which they are to plan. It is well and good to have a planning department, but if property rights are absolute (the thesis behind most "by-right" development), then the idea of planning growth, and most zoning in general, is moot. The Supreme Court's ruling restores the role of the local government to its rightful place in planning decisions.
(For a further look at recent land-use and development provisions which grew out of the Transportation Bill, Bacon's Rebellion has an interesting post from April.)

The Town of Leesburg has shown the way for the Loudoun County Board of Supervisors to review and manage our growth. By adopting an informed and consistent position, and defending the rights of the Town to have a role in development which impacts it, Leesburg has carved a path through the thicket of development law and practice which balances the rights of the property owner with the interests of the public. If only informed consistency were something we could count on from our Board of Supervisors.

"This board of nine people can be judged, as a unit, schizophrenic." - Scott York, quoted in The Washington Post

Military Political Giving

There is an absolutely fascinating entry on the New York Times' political blog "The Caucus." It turns out that members of the military are giving to candidates, and 40% of that money is going to the Democrats.

In the 2002 election cycle, which is the last full period before the war began, members of the military gave 23 percent of their donations to Democrats, the report says. So far this year, they have given 40 percent of their donations to Democrats, both for Congress and president.

In American capitalism, it is said that people vote with their wallets. If that is true, an economic sea change is underway, as one of the most reliably conservative, Republican demographics - our military - comes to support The Executive's opposition. It is an absolute testament to our troops that they serve loyally, and give their all for our nation, even while they spend a portion of their income, income which they often find more dear than most of us who have the time and inclination to write blogs, to support those dedicated to ending the very mission they have been ordered to complete.

The New York Times story is reported on the day The Executive goes before the nation to explain how he is keeping the vast majority of the troops in Iraq up to the moment his successor takes the oath of office. Even as he does this, more donations from are military are coming to successor candidates dedicated to bringing them home.

That is the very definition of freedom.

Advancing The Agenda

In the midst of the titanic debates over Iraq, immigration, abuser fees, infrastructure reinforcement and the 2008 campaign, it should be noted that Democrats are quietly getting quite a lot done, locally and nationally. The Richmond Democrat had a great post about this yesterday.

In spite of unprecedented obstructionism from Republicans in Congress and the need to deal first with critical issues related the war and national security, Democrats in Congress have found the time to win key victories in moving their domestic agenda forward.

Recent successes include passage of the Student Loan Bill, implementing all the 9/11 Commission Recommendations, returning the proper role of the Senate to the appointment of U.S. Attorneys, raising the minimum wage, funding quality treatment of our wounded soldiers and funding water projects that have gone unfunded throughout the Bush administration.

Unlike the Republican Congress, the Democratic Congress appears to be able to walk and chew gum at the same time. Our representatives are fighting the good fight on Iraq and other contentious issues even while quietly and effectively fulfilling the business of the people, passing important bills and providing oversight over the government.


(The Leesburg Town Council)
A parallel can be seen on the Leesburg Town Council, where the Mayor and her colleagues have moved forward to plan for the town's economic future, stand up against ill-conceived development, and work towards a compromise on contentious water rate issues. All of these actions of good government taking place relatively quietly, because the citizens shouldn't have to applaud when their government acts in their interests.

The two layers of government which are ineffective are, not incidentally, controlled by the Republicans. In the case of the Board of Supervisors we have seen lawsuits, demonization of entire segments of the population, and complete disarray in development and economic planning. In the House of Delegates and Senate, it was only pressure from Governor Kaine that led to any kind of transportation package, and only the Governor's amendments which turned it from a monstrosity to a passable near-term compromise. (Did you know that the Republicans in the legislature intended the abuser fees to be retroactive before Governor Kaine changed it?)

It is clear that the way to ensure good, effective government is to elect Democrats. So this year, why not consider volunteering for a campaign, making a donation, or even just putting a bumper sticker on your car. However you choose, show your colors, as we stand up for our future, together.

Mark Warner, What Else?

Gov. Warner is running to replace Sen. Warner in the Senate.

In 2009, it will be MarkNotJohn.


Perhaps the most significant comment comes at 1:22 in:

"So after this November's legislative elections..."

This is among the reasons he is so important to the Democratic Party of Virginia. Mark Warner understands the criticality of building the progressive, Democratic base in Virginia, and making sure the Democrats are in charge of Government in Virginia as we come to redistricting in 2011. He doesn't put himself before his party, he understands he is part of the party, an important part, but a part nonetheless.

By mentioning this November's elections so prominently in his de-facto announcement speech, he may be telling us here on the ground, stuffing doorhangers and canvassing, that his Senate run is, in essence, predicated on the Democrats winning this November. The door remains open, however so slightly, for Mark to make a run for the Governor in 2009 should things go badly in November. It's brilliant politics for himself and for Virginia.

I would like to offer one quick personal Mark Warner story. In 2002, I lived in Richmond. A friend and I were out one Friday or Saturday night (I forget which) visiting bars in The Fan. As we walked into one bar, we ran into a group in the entryway, coming out. Looking up, we discovered it was Governor Warner, and some of his friends from GWU. My understanding is that his buddies were visiting from out of town and they decided to head out and have some fun in The Fan. My friend and I talked to the Governor for a couple minutes, and went on our way. After all, in Richmond the Governor is pretty much just another one of your neighbors.

But the story illustrates this important point: Not only is Mark Warner someone you'd want to have a beer with, he's someone you quite possibly did have a beer with when he was Governor. As far as I am concerned, anyone who will take the time to go out with his friends while Governor is probably running things pretty well, and with the right perspective.

Migration's New Numbers

This morning, The Washington Post had a cover story on updated census figures, based on the 2006 American Community Survey. Given the numbers-based discussion of immigration in Loudoun and Leesburg posted here two days ago, it is appropriate to revisit some of those conclusions and evaluate whether they still hold true under the new numbers.

The new data for Loudoun County returns the following relevant results:

2006
Total Population (Loudoun County) - 268,817
Foreign Born - 56,378 = 21% of Total Population
Born in Latin America - 15,882 = 6% of total population, or 28% of foreign-born population

This is significant because by definition, undocumented migrants must be foreign born, as anyone born in the U.S. is a citizen. It is also significant because there is evidence that many of the people who are perceived as immigrants are actually U.S. citizens.

Population 5 years and over (Loudoun County) - 244,514
Spanish spoken at home - 21,607 = 8.8% of Population over 5 years old

Thus, there are more people who speak Spanish at home in Loudoun County than there are residents who were born in Latin America. In fact, a significant percentage (up to 30%!) of the people who speak Spanish at home are U.S. citizens.

Furthermore, while the increase in Foreign Born residents in Loudoun county has been significant (from 11% to 21% since 2000), and the increase in languages other than English spoken at home has grown from 15% to 26% in that time, the increase has not been from a massive flow of undocumented Latin American migrants. Here is the proof:

- The undocumented migrants we care about come from the population of Loudoun County Residents born in Latin America. None of the proposals so far discussed in Loudoun have focused on Canadian tourists overstaying their visas. That is a population of 15,882 people, or 6% of the total County population

- Of that population, some percentage are naturalized U.S. citizens. For all foreign-born residents of Loudoun County, 48% are naturalized U.S. citizens. In fact, the percentage of foreign-born residents of the U.S. who are naturalized citizens has been rising consistently for more than a decade. And the largest population of naturalized citizens is from Latin America. To be conservative, we will assume that only 35% of Latin American-born residents are naturalized citizens. Thus, the population of non-citizen residents originally from Latin America is somewhere in the vicinity of 10,323, or 3.8% of the total County population.

- Of this new population, some percentage are here legally, though not citizens. These are people with visas and green cards. Some of them have overstayed their visa, but they did not break the law by entering the country, their visa has simply expired. The State Department estimates that 17% of non-immigrant visas went to people from Mexico, which means that some additional percentage of people from Mexico received immigrant visas ("Green Cards"). This does not even account for the percentage of visas and Green Cards that went to Latin American migrants from nations other than Mexico. To keep things conservative, however, let us assume that only 17% of the non-citizen resident population from Latin American population in Loudoun County has a valid visa or Green Card. That leaves approximately 8,568 people living in Loudoun County without the legitimate paperwork to do so. That is 3.2% of the total population of Loudoun County.

So the rate of undocumented migrants in Loudoun is actually higher than was mentioned two days ago, but the basic conclusion remains. Since the population of foreign-born residents of Loudoun County is now 21%, if our public servants checked all foreign-born residents for documentation status, they would be wasting their time over 80% of the time.

Loudoun County's tax dollars should not be spent on wasting time.

The New Godwin's Law

"Every difference of opinion is not a difference of principle. We have called by different names brethren of the same principle." - Thomas Jefferson

Anyone who has been on, or even around, the Internet for more than a few years knows Godwin's Law: "As a Usenet discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches one." In general, once Godwin's Law has been invoked the chance of getting any useful signal out of the preponderance of noise in the discussion is zero. The practical upshot of this rule is that coherent, critical, rational discussion has a time/space limit, because at some point, people involved in the debate will invoke some comparison which renders further debate moot.

Which brings us to this morning's Washington Post.

Six years later, the Sept. 11 attacks remain the touchstone of American politics, the most powerful force that can be summoned on behalf of an argument even as a nation united in their aftermath today stands divided on their meaning.
- "9/11 Linked To Iraq, In Politics if Not in Fact"

(The Washington Post is now putting rhyming headlines on its front page, make of it what you will.)

On Usenet, and the Internet in general, Godwin's Law is used as a reference to a debate in which the sides are merely shouting uselessly at each other, not actually trying to come to some conclusion. It is used derisively and flippantly, as in, "the debate over the significance of the number "42" in Douglas Adams' writing has reached Godwin's Law."

The U.S. is at great risk of "nine-eleven" becoming the Godwin's Law of our national political discussion. Sides are starting to atrophy to where an interpretation of the events of September 11th is not subject to rational discussion, but is being used as a litmus test for ideological purity or agreement. We are fast approaching an inflection point - highlighted by the title of the Washington Post article above - where the facts of 9/11 are being overwhelmingly obscured by the legend of 9/11.

As I see it, there are at least four different interpretations of 9/11 in circulation today.

1. On 9/11, Muslim extremist terrorists attacked America, setting off a clash of civilizations between the Western world and the Middle-East. They attacked us because they fundamentally oppose the values and principals upon which we have built our society. We must fight this battle on all fronts in order to preserve our way of life. This can be seen as the Neo-Conservative Interpretation of events.

2. On 9/11, a handful of alienated and disenfranchised Wahhabist terrorists attacked symbols of America in retaliation for America's perceived imposition of its culture, political system and economic values on traditional Islamic societies. We must bring the instigators of this crime to justice, while developing an understanding of the causes of the wider alienation felt in an effort to mitigate it. This can be seen as the Progressive Interpretation of events.

3. On 9/11, terrorists attacked us. We must get them, because they want to blow up my church and make my wife wear a burkha. This might be seen as the Freeper Interpretation of events.

4. On 9/11, the CIA drove planes into buildings and then destroyed the twin towers in a controlled demolition. This was done to prop up oil prices and push the country to war to increase profits for the military-industrial complex. We must expose this plot and indict the traitors in the halls of power. This could be called the Tin-Foil Hat Interpretation of events.

Each interpretation of events drives different policy actions. Each interpretation yields radically different outcomes for our polity and it's wider role in the world and in the lives of American citizens. And perhaps most distressingly, each is mutually exclusive of the others, or nearly so.

This post does little to solve the interpretation problem, other than to illuminate it. It is merely a warning that we must redouble our efforts too listen to each other, and seek consensus, lest we irrevocably doom our children to misunderstanding and perhaps lead them to misinformed decisions about our grandchildren's future.

Our national debate will be fundamentally diminished if the day arrives when "Nine-Eleven" is the end of the discussion, instead of the beginning.

Board of Supervisors Debates - 2007

In one of the least-publicized, yet most-important developments of this 2007 campaign, there will be series of a public discussions among the candidates for Board of Supervisors (and other races) leading up to the election on November 6th. At these debates, candidates will be answering important questions about the future of Loudoun County.

From 1:00 - 2:30pm on September 13th, at the Cascades Senior Center (21060 Whitfield Place, Sterling) - AARP Candidates Forum. The candidates will be answering questions from the residents.

At 8:00am on September 27th, at the Belmont Country Club (19661 Belmont Manor Lane, Ashburn) - Chamber of Commerce Forum. The candidates will be answering questions from the Loudoun business community.

The League of Women Voters is sponsoring an entire series of candidate forums and debates.

Wednesday, September 19. 27th District Senate Candidate Forum, 7:00pm – 9:00pm., Carver Senior Center, Purcellville.

Tuesday, September 25. Loudoun County Sheriff Candidate Forum. 7:30pm - 9:00pm., Ida Lee Lower Level Meeting Room, Leesburg.

Wednesday, October 3. Board of Supervisors, candidates from Broad Run and Dulles Districts Candidate Forum. 7:00pm –9:00pm, Stone Bridge High School auditorium.

Wednesday, October 10. Board of Supervisors, candidates from Leesburg, Catoctin, and Blue Ridge Districts. 7:00pm – 9:00pm., Loudoun County High School auditorium.

Wednesday, October 17. Board of Supervisors, candidates from Sterling, Sugarland Run and Potomac Districts. 7:00pm to 9:00pm, Potomac Falls High School.

Leesburg's Immigration Bogeyman

This evening, Councilman Ken Reid (who opposed Jim Clem before supporting him), introduced a resolution before the Town Council calling for suspension of Town services to undocumented migrants.

The resolution is derivative of a draft sample ordinance created by the Immigration Reform Law Institute. It is surely the case that this resolution represents an excellent effort by the staff of this conservative legal think tank, but our interest will not beserved by an immigration resolution drafted in Washington DC imposed on Leesburg, Virginia. Leesburg would do well to avoid anything involving a firm that specializes in immigration litigation. Passage of the IRLI resolution means a revenue source for the IRLI lawyers. Their interests are served by lawsuits, not law enforcement. The evidence for this is right on the model IRLI resolution's disclaimer:

Important Notice: This ordinance has been prepared by IRLI as a model for educational purposes. Alteration of the text may create legal liabilities if implemented. The model must be adapted to conform to local law and procedure. Please contact the Immigration Reform Law Institute for assitance regarding the suitability of this model for specific local use. [Emphasis mine]

It is important to remember that Virginia is a Dillon Rule state. Any resolution or ordinance which can be construed to step beyond the local authority explicitly granted by the state government is subject to a legal challenge. If Leesburg passed this resolution, the only certain outcome is billable hours for the firm retained to represent the Town in the Dillon Rule suit sure to follow.

(As ever, I am not a lawyer, just a concerned taxpayer.)

Mr. Reid, who has long been an opponent of any new spending or costs from the Town Government, neglected to provide any specific information as to what his proposal would cost the Town to implement and enforce. This resolution will definitely impose new costs, Ken Reid must plan on suppoorting new taxes to meet them. Otherwise, the voters deserve to know which town services will be cut to fund a quest to make our neighbors' lives miserable.

Additionally, such policies would be inherently discriminatory (and thus, subject to a lawsuit from yet another angle), unless all public services were subject to a universal citizenship check. That would mean that residents would need to bring birth certificates and passports to apply for any job in Loudoun County, or to seek housing assistance, or to escape from abusive relationships. This resolution may be but a step on the road to requiring "papers" to receive or use any government service or institution, or even to vote.

Most importantly, the basis for the resolution is fundamentally flawed. Immigration is not a critical issue facing Leesburg.

The crime rate in Loudoun County actually went down as the migrant population increased from 6% to 10% over the past few years. Loudoun Force makes this point powerfully:

Another statistic provided by Kraig Troxell, Public Information Officer for the Loudoun County Sheriff’s department, is that “there have been 3698 arrests in Loudoun County in 2007. Of those arrests 32 had ICE detainers lodged against them.”

This means that only 0.86% of the crimes committed in 2007 to date where committed by the undocumented. Assuming an overall undocumented population of 5%, which was recently used by Supervisor Mick Staton, this reflects a crime rate that is nearly six (6) times less then the crime rate of the documented population.

Another way to view this is that if all the undocumented immigrants where removed from Loudoun County, the overall crime rate would increase, and it would increase rather significantly. This is because this less criminally inclined portion of the population would be removed from the statistics.

The population of hispanic residents in Loudoun is relatively small, only 9.3% (~25,000 people) of the total County population in 2005. Of that number, approximately 4,000 are likely to be undocumented migrants. That figure is derived by multiplying 1.5 (the approximate rate of undocumented migrants per 100 people in Virginia is 1.3. To be conservative, I used 1.5 for Loudoun, which would yield a higher number of undocumented migrants for Loudoun than Virginia as a whole) by the estimated 2006 population of Loudoun. That means that approximately 1.5% of Loudoun County residents are likely to be undocumented migrants. This in a county where over 11% of residents are foreign-born.

If our government starts inquiring as to the documentation status of everyone who might not be a legal resident, and only asks those who weren't born in the U.S. (setting up another racial profiling lawsuit for sure), then our public servants will still be wasting their time 90% of the time!

If you think waiting in line at the DMV is a waste of time, imagine waiting in line at the DMV nine times before actually getting anything done, and you will have the recommended policy advocated by people like Jim Clem and Ken Reid.

To Summarize:
Local immigration resolutions are a useless waste of time that put towns at risk of serious litigation, increase the costs (for defense of lawsuits and enforcement of residency validation) of town government, and impose needless waiting, lines and bureaucracy on the 98.5% of our neighbors who seek public services legitimately.

And this is the great Republican idea of 2007.

[Update] Congressman Wolf was in Leesburg tonight, talking about Darfur. He was next door to the Town Council chambers, at the Tally Ho theater. Since immigration starts and ends as a Federal issue, perhaps Congresman Wolf could have been asked to stop by the Town Council meeting and voice his Federal voice on what is, in fact, a Federal issue?

Or was the Council's immigration debate just a means of grandstanding for Loudoun County Republicans? Considering the complete lack of coordination on discussion of this issue between our local (Republican) representative on the Town Council and our Federal (Republican) representative in Congress, the evidence is strong for grandstanding alone.

Another Day, Another Board Lawsuit

From the Loudoun Times-Mirror:

Owners of property adjacent to Leesburg Executive Airport have filed a lawsuit challenging the Loudoun County Board of Supervisors' recent decision to deny the Crosstrail rezoning application. Filed on Aug. 15 with Loudoun County Circuit Court, the civil suit claims the board's action was "unreasonable" and "capricious" in denying the rezoning of nearly 500 acres southeast of Leesburg.
- The Loudoun-Times Mirror

The Board of Supervisors is currently involved in at least three lawsuits: Fields Farm, the NVTA appeal, and now a lawsuit over Crosstrail. And if the County starts denying residents public services, we can expect a few more. The last time a locality spent its time and money pushing an ideological agenda through the court system the taxpayers of that district wound up paying millions when they lost. There are better uses for our County tax dollars than lawsuits and appeals.

Playing Hookie at Back-to-School Night

This is from a Letter to the Editor published in last week's Loudoun Times-Mirror.

"Back to School" nights for parents will soon be upon us. We have attended many of these "open house" events at our children's schools and consider them wonderful opportunities to get to know teachers and administrators and acquaint ourselves with instructional plans.

The only downside to these events is the inevitable encounter with local politicians and office seekers on site only to glad-hand, ingratiate, and gather votes. We have always felt that this is an entirely inappropriate and selfish exploitation of public facilities and parents' time.

One local public official whom we have never seen abusing "Back to School" nights for such political pandering is Jim Clem, current Loudoun supervisor and former mayor of Leesburg. I know that he considers this kind of campaigning undignified and disrespectful of school children, parents and teachers.

Candidates, take note. Your self-promoting presence at our local school events is embarrassing. This year, pleased [sic] do not attend. ...

Brian and Shannon Smith
Ashburn
(Published in the Loudoun Times-Mirror)

That's correct, Jim Clem has not been seen at back to school nights. Or at Keep Leesburg Beautiful events. Or at Town Council Meetings. Or at Ida Lee. Or, really, much of anywhere around town. For a man representing Leesburg, he doesn't seem to get around Leesburg much.

It is interesting that people take such pleasure and interest in meeting teachers and school administrators, but not their local elected leaders and representatives. After all, it is the people who are often standing in front of these schools, or knocking on doors this time of year, who control the school budget, set policies for our police, and set the zoning which determines when and how we need new schools. The people running for office, standing in front of the schools, are geniuinely interested in talking to the citizens of Loudoun about the future of Loudoun. Ultimately, our local elected leaders have more influence over our day-to-day lives than anyone else we have the opportunity to vote for.

Parents possibly have the most to win and lose from the local elections on November 6th. Why not talk to a candidate if they present themselves for consideration? Isn't that what democracy is supposed to be about?

Fenway Inspires

From Bill Simmons' column at ESPN:

Joe in Vestal, N.Y.: As a certified Red Sox Hater (actually the fans), this is very hard for me to do. Give the Sox fans their due. The reaction to the Autistic person singing the anthem is nothing short of fantastic. As the parent of a 13-year-old son with Autism, it is scenes like this that help us to keep up the fight for Autism Awareness. Please pass this clip on to your readers if you haven't already. Thanks.

Kelly Burk Means Practical Leadership

There are myriad reasons to vote for Kelly Burk on November 6th. Here are four specific, concrete things she has done for Leesburg while on the Town Council.

I. Battlefield Parkway - Kelly was instrumental in getting the funding and planning done for the completion of Battlefield Parkway, in spite of many hurdles raised by the county, state and others. She saw a problem, and solved it from her position on the Town Council.

II. Town/County Water Rate Commission - While many have been grandstanding over the issue of water rates charged by the town to people just outside of town, Kelly Burk and the Town Council took the lead to look for a solution that would satisfy all parties. This is the kind of practical problem solving we need when dealing with issues like school construction.

III. Keep Leesburg Beautiful - This is the perfect example of a win-win. With this effort, Leesburg residents get out, get together and clean up the town. In doing so, ties to, and within, the community deepen without any extra expenditure of town money. In spearheading this effort Kelly Burk proved her excellent stewardship of the town and its money.

IV. Tuscarora Watershed Grant - Tuscarora Creek is a critical watershed for Leesburg. As Loudoun grows, the care and maintenance of our watersheds will be more and more important. On the Town Council, Kelly Burk has shown the long-term perspective on conservation issues necessary to manage Loudoun's scarce natural resources such as Goose Creek.

In her time on the Town Council, Kelly Burk has shown practical leadership on the issues important to the citizens. She has worked together with a variety of citizens, businesses and organizations to solve problems. This is the representation Leesburg deserves on the Board of Supervisors.

Own-to-Rent

Credit is due to Marketplace for a recent story about "own-to-rent" legislation, which would allow people to continue living in their houses, even in foreclosure.

The simple way is, Congress passes legislation and says the current homeowner has the right to stay in the home as long as they like. All they have to do is pay fair market rent. And of course under this plan, the homeowners turn over the property to the mortgage holder. So the mortgage holder does get the property, and it's a bailout that really protects the low-income homeowner who was sold a bill of goods.
- Chris Farrell, Marketplace

Dean Baker explained this idea, in detail, over at TPM Cafe.

Here’s how the plan works. Currently, if a homeowner is not able to make their mortgage payments, the holder of the mortgage can go to court to place the house in foreclosure. At that point, if the homeowner is not able to come up with back payments on the mortgage, or work out an acceptable arrangement with the mortgage holder, the bank or financial institution that holds the mortgage retakes ownership of the house and can have the homeowner evicted.

Under this security of housing proposal, the foreclosure process would be changed so that the current homeowner would have the option to remain in their house as a renter paying the fair market rent. If a homeowner chose to go this route, the judge in the foreclosure proceeding would appoint an independent appraiser to determine the fair market rent for the house. This is similar to the process a bank undertakes when it hires an appraiser to determine the value of the house before issuing a mortgage, except the appraiser will be asked to determine the rent rather than the sale price.

This idea is a great one. It helps manage the housing problems currently facing many of our neighbors and accomplishes three important goals.

First, it insures that people are not immediately forced out of their homes in foreclosure. There are few things more detrimental to a community, and a family, than a sudden loss of a home, and thus a neighbor. Foreclosed houses which remain empty become eyesores and targets for petty crime. And for the families forced to leave their homes, with their lives in financial ruin, a vicious downward spiral is often the next step. This proposal at least gives them an opportunity to stay in their house as they put their financial lives back together.

Second, it puts the burden of dealing with the foreclosure crisis on the people who caused it - overexuberant lenders. Just like the dot.com bust of 2000-2001, the below-prime mortgage meltdown was the result of speculation and lax financial oversight. And the lenders knew the risks, so they should pay the price.

PMI recently sent new underwriting rules to its lender network, tightening up on the number of mortgages -- and dollar risk exposure -- loan applicants are permitted to present to the insurer. Individual loan applicants no longer will be permitted to represent greater than $350,000 worth of total loss exposure to PMI, nor to have more than four PMI-insured low-downpayment loans.
- Kenneth R. Harney, March 21, 2005

In 2005, the industry knew about the risks, but their answer was to limit individual applicants to four low-downpayment loans each. Only speculators have need for four low-downpayment loans. The lenders who enabled the speculative bubble should pay the price, and that means accepting rent, instead of resale, of the houses they suddenly own in foreclosure.

Third, this plan creates the right kind of incentives. It brings the debtor and the lender to the table to look for a solution. The problem is that the debtor cannot pay the full amount of the debt, but probably does not want a foreclosure on their credit report. Banks, as a rule, do not want to become landlords, but do want some compensation for the debt. The solution may be the lender accepting less in return for not having to become a landlord. This plan gives both sides a reason to come to a deal before an actual foreclosure happens.

Dean Baker gets the last word.

The point here is simple. We can design a mechanism that will directly benefit millions of moderate income homeowners who are struggling to hang on to their homes. Or, we can come up with schemes that will benefit the banks and hedge funds who speculated in mortgage debt. Place your bets.

Iraq Bait-and-Switch

"He is now as valiant as Hercules, that only tells a lie and swears it."
- Shakespeare, Much Ado About Nothing, Act IV, Scene 1

President Bush will be taking credit for withdrawing troops from Iraq in the next four to six months. He will claim that it is because "the surge is working." Putting aside for the moment the fact that a surge which lasts longer than six months is probably more accurately referred to as an escalation, we must all remember exactly why those troops will be coming home by next April.

They will be coming home because their return is part of a regularly scheduled rotation.

For example,

The announcement affects about 35,000 active-duty troops, who all will deploy between August and the year’s end to serve as replacement forces for those returning home, Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman told reporters. The units will deploy for up to 15 months. [Emphasis mine]
- American Forces Press Service

So sometime between now and April, somewhere in the neighborhood of 35,000 troops will be returning home - withdrawn, if you will - as part of a normal rotation pattern.

Here's what the Richmond Times Dispatch, one of the most reliably conservative and Republican papers in the nation, says:

There are 162,000 troops in Iraq -- the largest number since the March 2003 invasion. Pentagon officials have said the increased force likely would have to be trimmed by next spring because of training and rotation requirements. [Again, emphasis mine]

It's not that the surge is working, it's that our military is stretched to the breaking point and we need to bring units home to rest.

As Devilstower said on DailyKos:

We're but a Freidman unit away from Magical April, when the administration will run out of troops to put on the front lines, draw back to the levels before the recent escalation, parade it before the public as a "large reduction in forces," and claim that they, not the Democrats, are the only ones doing anything about reducing forces in Iraq.

Taking credit for the return of some of our soldiers in the next six months is like taking credit for the surge in Federal tax revenue every April.

So when you start reading stories about a withdrawl of troops initiated by The Executive, remember that these troops are being withdrawn because they are exhausted and have given all they have to give, not because the Administration strategy is working.

[update] As usual, Keith Olbermann gets it.

And got there before I did.

Loudoun Economic Woes

The national jobs report this morning is not good.

We keep hearing that the subprime lending mess probably won't bring down the broader economy, but this morning's jobs report suggests otherwise. For the first time in four years, employers fired more people than they hired in August. The net result was a loss of 4,000 jobs. This caught economists completely off guard — they'd predicted that companies had added 110,000 jobs last month — and Wall Street is reeling in early trading.
- Marketplace

But in Loudoun County, we already knew that the subprime lending mess was hitting home hard.

Loudoun County homeowners are facing foreclosure in record numbers, with more than 441 deeds of foreclosure already filed with the county court this year. In 2005, the county recorded 12 deeds of foreclosure; last year that number jumped to 139, and, as of July of this year, the current number is more than triple last year's figures.
- Leesburg Today

The top three issues coming out of the Board of Supervisors in the past two weeks?

1. Immigration - A Federal issue.
2. Push Polling - Which the Board voted to continue continue to permit.
3. Reinstating the Inspectors General and Auditors - Which should never have been disbanded in the first place. (It is interesting that it comes up right before an election in which ethics questions are an issue.)

All of these issues are so much grandstanding for the election. Meanwhile, 441 of our neighbors are losing their homes. On this Board's watch, the number of foreclosures in 2007 is 36 times greater than it was in 2005.

Financing Our Roads

The good news is that the Northern Virginia Transportation Authority was declared constitutional by a judge in Arlington a short while ago. The bad news is that the Board of Supervisors is spending voter tax dollars in an ill-advised appeal of that decision.

The Loudoun Board of Supervisors voted yesterday to press forward with an appeal of an Arlington Circuit Court judge's ruling that taxes to be imposed and bonds to be issued by the Northern Virginia Transportation Authority are constitutional. Loudoun is the only jurisdiction mounting a challenge to the regional road construction funding plan.
...
The board voted 8-0-1 to appeal the ruling, with Supervisor Jim Burton (I-Blue Ridge) absent for the vote. Burton had previously said he opposed the appeal because of the cost and the fact that another group is appealing; however, he said that after the board's closed sessiong meeting Tuesday with legal advisors, he was persuaded by "three bites on my right leg and a twist on my arm" to vote for it.
-Leesburg Today

Meanwhile, our roads and bridges are in jeopardy.

Following a fatal crash involving teenage siblings last winter, the North King Street/Rt. 15 intersection north of Leesburg again caught the attention of residents, politicians and traffic experts alike, and VDOT restudied the intersection and made adjustments in April, four months after the accident.
- Leesburg Today

And,

The board does not meet again until Sept 4, but Supervisor Lori Waters (R-Broad Run) sent a letter this week to VDOT asking the agency to consider using a porion of the $1.8million it plans to spend on Loudoun's gravel roads within the current fiscal year to temporarily fix Sycolin Road while residents wait fora more comprehensive improvement project along that route. ... There have been 50 accidents along that road during the past two years according to a report the Loudoun Sheriff's Office submitted to her.
- Leesburg Today (Print edition, August 31, 2007)

The Republicans on the Board of Supervisors are more interested in spending tax dollars to overturn the first transportation improvement legislation in decades than actually doing something about roads in Loudoun. Our traffic and roads problems are no longer a quality-of-life issue, they are a safety issue.

If paving Sycolin (for example) were to reduce accidents by 50%, that means probably 2 full man-weeks of deputy time (assuming 3-4 hours per accident on site and doing paperwork) which would be available for other important work enforcing laws and improving safety. How much faster would Sycolin get paved if the money being spent on the appeal were designated for paving Sycolin instead?

It's critical to note that Loudoun stands alone among NVTA members in appealing the NVTA's constitutionality. When Loudoun loses on appeal, it is likely that the other jurisdictions on the NVTA will not look as kindly on projects that benefit Loudoun. After all, Loudoun's appeal threatens the projects of every jurisdiction involved in the NVTA. If the NVTA is overturned, Loudoun stands to lose over $8 Million in immediate road project money, including money for Battlefield Parkway, Loudoun County Parkway, and Maple and Main in Purcellville. (We assuredly lost the opportunity for the NVTA to be based in Loudoun as a result of this appeal.)

The Board of Supervisors is spending the money raised by this year's higher property taxes in an attempt to cast down the state's solution to our transportation dilemma. This is how they propose to "end gridlock, stop sprawl and density packing?"

Meanwhile, in Leesburg, the Town Council actually did something in the face of County and State inaction on transportation. In 2006, the Town Council allocated $15 million for local road improvements like Battlefield Parkway. And in doing so, was able to secure further funding in the form of a state grant. In fiscal 2008, the Town continues to manage and fund the completion of this critical link.

Is it Leesburg's responsibility to fund a connecting road that would effectively route traffic around the Town? A road which is likely to be used largely by people bypassing the town itself? No, this kind of regional improvement is a state and county issue, but the Town Council saw fit to step in and solve the problem when no one else would. This kind of pragmatic leadership, which places problem solving before posturing, is what we need from the Board of Supervisors.

Good Leesburg Merchants

In honor of one month of Leesburg Tomorrow, I'd like to provide three quick recommendations of merchants and vendors I've used that have been great to work with.

Residential Systems Inc. - This is the big one for me. They've worked with us to fix our furnace and central air. If you need your AC or furnace fixed, they do good work.

Bakewell Home Inspections - Of the myriad decisions made in buying this house, the best one by far was hiring Jeff Bakewell to do the home inspection. From the lifetime support provided by email to the "users manual" for the house, Jeff provided more than an inspection, he provided this first-time homeowner with the advice necessary to maintain the house.

Greenberry's Coffee - The best coffee in town, period. I fully admit being biased, having basically grown-up on the stuff while at U.Va. The coffee isn't as strong as Starbucks, while being just as flavorful. It is remarkably easy to drink and enjoyable. Plus, the people who work there are local and phenomenal. They've got WiFi available, which is probably why the place is a popular meeting spot for locals.

There will be more recommendations to come in the future.

VW to Herndon

Volkswagen of America is moving its U.S. headquarters to Herndon.

Volkswagen will relocate to Woodland Pointe, a Class A office building on the Dulles Toll Road, according to sources who asked not to be identified because of the confidential nature of the deal. The 184,834-square-foot building was completed this summer. Leasing representatives for both Tishman and Volkswagen declined to comment.
- The Washington Business Journal

This is a development for our region, as it brings an entirely new industry to the economic base already developed by government contracting and telecommunications. It is also a great win for Fairfax county, as the Washington Post explains.

Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) authorized incentives worth $6 million to lure Volkswagen, including a $1.5 million cash payment in the next year and $4.5 million over five years beginning in 2011. The company won't receive the grants until it meets benchmarks for employment and investing in the region. Fairfax County will spend at least $1.5 million to accelerate road and land projects to ease Volkswagen's move.
- The Washington Post

Meanwhile the office space market in Loudoun saw vacancy on the Rt. 7 corridor spike from 3.4% to 9.1% between 2005 and 2006, with Rt. 28 vacancy at 11.2% for 2006. (All data from the Northern Virginia Market Report Year End 2006 with 2007 Forecast by NAI KLNB) It would be interesting to find out why Volkswagen chose Herndon for its location in Northern Virginia, when one of their most successful dealerships is just a mile or two away, in Loudoun.

This win for Fairfax is great for the region and the state, but it only serves to emphasize the perspective the business community has of Loudoun as a bedroom community. While the Board of Supervisors has been talking about diversifying Loudoun's economic base, that base has withered on their watch. MCI is a shadow of its former self, AOL is declining, even FAA jobs in Leesburg are taking a huge hit.

The Loudoun County Economic Development Committee consists of Lori Waters (Chair), Jim Burton, Stephen J. Snow, Bruce E. Tulloch, and Scott K. York. The EDC is clearly aware of the vacancy rate and need for a diversified business base.

Yet in none of the EDC's meeting notes was there any indication that our elected representatives knew that the VW deal was in play.

It's time to change the team at the top. On November 6th, vote for a better Loudoun.

One Month In

Today marks one month since Leesburg Tomorrow began.

Does anyone have any suggestions or recommendations they'd like to share? Any commentary you particularly liked? Any you thought particularly spurious?

The Board of Supervisors and Push Polls

Well, at least now we know why the Board of Supervisors had such a hard time with ethics deliberations earlier this year.

Loudoun County supervisors Tuesday stopped short of Supervisor Jim Clem's (R-Leesburg) request to condemn the use of push polls in campaigning for this fall's election, but did criticize a recent example that disseminated unsubstantiated allegations about a General Assembly candidate.

"The politics of personal destruction are not welcome here in our community," Clem said, later acknowledging that his intent was to repudiate negative push polls, not all surveys. "I feel very strongly about this."

However, other members of the board said they could not support condemning all push polls because such polls can be used to highlight positive aspects of a candidate's record and because negative attacks come with the territory when people decide to run for public office. - Leesburg Today

Is opposing all push polling really that difficult at this level? This is the Board of Supervisors campaign, not a Presidential race. Loudoun County's voters do not want their local races to take their cues from Presidential campaigns.

Ultimately, the Board voted 8-0-1 (Supervisor Staton was absent) to condemn the individual conducting a negative push poll, but not push polling itself. Loudoun County deserves more leadership from its Board of Supervisors. A resolution opposing all push polling would have provided a basic standard regarding campaign tactics by which we could expect our candidates to abide.

The fact that Jim Clem could not even get a resolution opposing push polling passed through the Board of Supervisors just goes to show how ineffective he has been on the Board. He is ineffective in advocating for Leesburg, and enables the worst tendencies of this Board. He could not even be bothered to be present for the ultimate vote on the ethics policies which passed in February. ("Supervisor Clem announced that he had to leave for another meeting.") Supervisor Clem has consistently walked out on his responsibilities representing Leesburg on the Board of Supervisors.

It is time for Jim Clem to go.

(Disclaimer: I am a volunteer for Kelly Burk's BoS campaign.)

Fix 15 North

U.S. 15 north of Leesburg to Point-of-Rocks needs to be fixed.

It's a gorgeous road, through some beautiful land, but it is carrying far beyond its capacity.

She noted that capacity for two-lane rural roads is 10,000 to 15,000 vehicles per day. Four and six-lane roads have higher capacity, although higher speeds will attract trips from other routes. In 2005, Rt. 15 between Point and Rocks to Leesburg was estimated at 20,000 vehicles per day. That traffic volume is expected to double by 2030.
- Lorna Parkins in Leesburg Today

And that's dangerous.

Three of these bridges along Rt. 15 north of Leesburg that intersect the tributaries of the Potomac River were rehabbed in 1994 and are already considered functionally obsolete, according to VDOT's statistics.
- Leesburg Today

And we've seen what can happen when obsolete bridges are forced to carry more traffic than they were designed for. The "not in my back yard" policies of residents of both Virginia's and Maryland's Potomac shores have stymied the efforts to build another Potomac crossing between the American Legion Bridge and the Point-of-Rocks bridge.

For example, a 2001 report by the Chesapeake Bay Foundation, which generally opposes development, found that an additional bridge would have no significant impact on traffic crossing the American Legion bridge from Virginia to Maryland. But in 2001, MCI (in Loudoun) had not yet declared bankruptcy, and AOL (in Loudoun) had not started laying-off hundreds of employees. There is no doubt in my mind that some of our neighbors started commuting to Maryland for their jobs. Furthermore, the report assumes that there would be "heavy rail" on the American Legion Bridge by 2020! Given how difficult it has been to get rail to Dulles, rail over the American Legion bridge is a pipe dream. And finally, a part of Loudoun's traffic problem is not commuter traffic, but longer, regional trip traffic. It's people looking to cross the Potomac, but avoid the Beltway, on their way from points south to points north.

The fact, borne out by our own experiences, is that traffic to and from the Point-of-Rocks bridge has been increasing, every day. The backup of traffic to the light at Fort Evans Road on Friday afternoons is a testament to that. The statements of our our neighbors in Lucketts are a testament to that:

Residents living along Rt. 15 told of their frustrations over not being able to get out of their driveways for long periods and "taking our lives in our hands just trying to cross the street," as one resident put it. - Leesburg Today

In the next few years, the completion of Battlefield Parkway will only serve to move traffic, in four-lanes, more quickly onto the two-lane stretch of U.S. 15 north between Leesburg and Point-of-Rocks.

Options for additional crossings have been discussed for decades. The Western Transportation Corridor became a political lightning rod when it was proposed, killed, revived and killed. (Incidentally, I fully support Andrea McGimsey's election to the Board of Supervisors.) Perhaps it is up for another revival?

Although Montgomery County, MD, leaders have adamantly refused to consider a bridge crossing, Kurtz noted that since 2001, Maryland's four-lane limited access Rt. 370 now lines up with Rt. 28. "There is room to connect to 28, and that would take care of Dulles," whose businesses interests want a northern route, she [Supervisor Kurtz] said. - Leesburg Today

A bridge over the Potomac north from Rt. 28 appears to make sense. Looking at a map, sticking a bridge over the Potomac at Rt. 28 would knock out what looks (to me) like one development in Virginia, and one development in Maryland. Most of the alternatives involve adding bigger, longer roads in a lot more of the county.

Of course, the development which would be inconvenienced by this proposed bridge is Broad Run Farms. This development is one of the most established (and probably politically sensitive) in Loudoun.

These kinds of development questions are the essence of the smart growth dilemma. Putting a Potomac Bridge at Rt. 28 would reduce traffic, congestion and development from Lucketts down 15, over 7 to the intersection of Rt. 28 and 7, at a cost of one development in Sterling. In doing so, we would reduce the load on a series of bridges already at risk of obsolescence and degradation, and minimize the miles travelled across our roads. This, in turn, will reduce the growth of maintenance and repair costs of 15 and 7. Maintaining Broad Run Farms at it is forces growth onto 15 and 7, because the traffic has to go somewhere.

The question is whether Loudoun can really accomplish "smart" growth, or if we are simply opposed to "any" growth.

Because the growth is going to come, whether we like it or not, and if we don't manage it, it's going to come with consequences none of us want.


(At the request of a couple friends, I have changed the image I originally used with this entry. If you want to see the original picture, click here.)

Human RFID and Harassed Consumers

Two interesting and important privacy stories came across Slashdot today. Perhaps the scariest is this one, California Blocks RFID Implants In Workers.

Which of course begs the question, why does such a thing need to be blocked? Well, because,

At least one other company — CityWatcher.com, a Cincinnati video surveillance company — already required RFID implants in some employees.

It's bad enough employees are required to carry cell phones (and pagers) so employers can reach them 24x7x365, but this is ridiculous.

And the second, Man Arrested for Refusing to Show Drivers License, sounds fairly tame at first, until you realize that the arrest occurred as the result of a comedy of errors that can essentially be derived from the police showing up to enforce a store policy.

The officer then asked for Michael's driver's license, which he declined to provide since he wasn't operating a motor vehicle. The officer then arrested him, and upon finding out Michael was legally right about not having to provide a license, went ahead and charged him with 'obstructing official business' anyways."

The police exist to enforce laws, not store policies. Especially not legally questionable store policies.

Please remember, the police (and other people in positions of authority, like your boss or your state Delegate) have the right to ask for anything they please, the same as anyone else. They do not always have the right to receive what they ask for. If you wonder about this fact, imagine you are standing next to a police officer, and she asks you for $100. Do you say "no!" Of course you do. When it comes to our rights, it's the same thing. The police, or your employer can always ask to come inside your house, to search your car, or to reveal private, personal information. You do not have to let them.

Here's the dirty secret about all these encroachments on our liberties: If they have the legal right to do it, they won't ask. They might tell you they'll do it, have you acknowledge some kind of statement saying they will do it, but they won't ask to do it.

So the next time they ask for something, like your social security number for example, say "no." the greatest defense against encroachment of our liberties is an informed citizenry.

(Disclaimer: I am not a lawyer, of course, this is only my opinion. But so far, I've said "no" to a lot of encroachments. There have been a lot of funny looks, and I caused some minor inconveniences to people who were too lazy to do a little extra work to protect my privacy, but saying "no" has never caused me to be denied a service. If the request is coming from someone at the front desk, ask to speak to the supervisor, this pretty much always works for me.)

Keep an Eye on Reality

Once again, Hunter nails it.

Yes, if any of this sounds familiar, it is because it is the exact same game as has been played for the past three years. Everything's fine. Those buildings are not on fire. Those killings weren't religious killings, so they don't count. The electricity is on... at least, for between one and four hours a day, and if you want more than that it's because you hate freedom (freedom, apparently, hates to be refrigerated.) If it weren't for al Qaeda, or Iran, or the weather, or a certain militia, or the British pulling out, or you damn kids today with your loud music and opinions about things, we'd be winning already. So give it another three or six months, and then you just wait -- wow, the progress you'll see!

At some point, we need to step back and look at what we've been told for four years, and compare it with what we've seen for four years. At some point, we need to rationaly assess the claims made about this war, and see if they match to the reality of the war.

And as we think about this, please remember, this war is coming home.

The Leesburg unit of the Virginia Army National Guard – C Company -- left for Iraq earlier this week after completing two months of pre-deployment training Aug. 26 at Mississippi's Camp Shelby. The 120 or so soldiers in the company were trained to serve as convoy escorts and security, moving supplies between bases in Iraq. The soldiers will be in active service for the next 11 months in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom.
- The Loudoun Times

Convoy escort is one of the most important, but difficult, jobs in Iraq. Our neighbors will be going over there for 11 months to make sure our front-line troops have the supplies they need to carry out their orders. They will also be providing general security for the people trying to bring peace and safety to Iraq. They will be giving their all to fulfill their duty, the least we can do is make sure that the decisions our political leaders are making are the right decisions. A good sign of correct decision making is accurate predictions of outcomes. So far, the outcomes that have occurred in Iraq have been the opposite of those predicted by The Executive. Draw your own conclusions.

And when someone accuses those who question the war of not supporting our troops, I point them to a UVA student Jo Watts, who left for a second tour in Iraq this year - as a National Guardsman from Suffolk:

Whether the American people believe the U.S. presence in Iraq is effective or not, in no way does Watts feel there is a lack of support for the soldiers as there was during the Vietnam War. Unlike the soldiers in Vietnam who, upon returning, were accused of being "un-American," Watts said everyone he encounters has been "100 percent supportive."

"I think the American people learned from their mistakes [in Vietnam] and realized even if the war is unpopular it's not the individual soldier that is at fault," Watts said. "It's the administration that plans the war that should be held responsible."
- The Cavalier Daily (Though it may pain me a little to quote it)

We all have a responsibility to each other. That responsibility becomes more acute when the people we elected ask our neighbors to lay their lives on the line in a foreign country. Jim Webb understands this, John Warner understands this. We can do no less than come to this understanding ourselves.

(With a tip-o-the-hat to Quizzical over at RaisingKaine.)

Democratic Senate Candidates

With the departure of John Warner announced (on the Grounds of the University no less), thoughts must now turn to who the Democrats could nominate to run for the open seat now available in the race for Senator from Virginia. (Incidentally, I love the fact that Jim Webb will be the "Senior Senator from the Great State of Virginia" come January 2009. That just sounds right.) There has been plenty of speculation about Mark Warner, but what if the Governor declines to run? We Democrats must not put all our eggs in Gov. Warner's basket.


(This graphic is from the Illinois Farm Bureau. Note that our election is on November 6th, not 7th.)

I see five definite possibilities which Virginians would do well to consider.

Brian Moran - The leader of the House Democrats is probably most likely to consider a Senate bid if the party doesn't take the seats necessary for control of the Virginia House of Delegates. With a base of support in Chesapeake and a network of contacts and supporters across the state, not to mention the fact that many people in northern Virginia are already inclined to vote for someone named Moran, Brian would be an excellent candidate in the mold of Jon Tester or Jeff Merkley.

Don Beyer - The former Lt. Governor of Virginia already has an established base that tried to recruit him in 2006. He still does the rounds of political get-togethers in northern Virginia, and has de-facto bumper stickers on thousands of cars. He's a good campaigner, though he had difficulty in translating his popularity in northern Virginia into state-wide momentum in 2001. His experience in state-wide office and in state-wide campaigns would serve him well, however, in an election year already trending against the Republicans.

Jim Moran - The second Moran brother on this list, Jim Moran would benefit from name recognition in the Chesapeake region because of Brian Moran. Representative Moran is an established and well-recognized face in Congress, so he may not be interested in giving up his priviledges and seniority there to make a run for the senior chamber. Jim Moran is a political moderate, helping found the New Democrat Coalition and voting for CAFTA, though he did oppose the Defense of Marriage Act. He has been a long-standing proponent of Virginia high technology. He even liveblogged over at WashingtonPost.com this year. Perhaps burnishing his netroots credentials just in case he wanted to run?

Creigh Deeds - The only rural Virginian on the list, Creigh has retained the state-wide network of contacts he developed during his run for Attorney General in 2005. He is widely expected to run for Governor in 2009, but if Mark Warner indicated he wanted to return to Richmond, Creigh may make a run for the Senate. Creigh has the advantage of knowing how to win in regions that are not northern Virginia or Chesapeake. He even has experience with electrical regulation, an issue that strikes deep to the heart of many in Loudoun and Prince William counties.

Robert "Bobby" Scott - The true dark horse on this list, Bobby Scott was my Representative in Congress when I lived in Richmond. Congressman Scott is a graduate of Harvard University, and the first African-American to represent Virginia in Cogress since Reconstruction. He has fantastic progressive credentials, having opposed the FISA bill and fought for SCHIP, and a wealth of legislative and campaign experience. In an open seat race, Congressman Scott's intelligence and accomplishments would make the case for a more progressive Virginia.

Any and all of these candidates would serve Virginia well in the Senate, the next fourteen months are going to be a lot of fun.

(A tip-o-the-hat to James Martin's RK Diary which hit on this topic in July.)

It Is Not A Scandal [updated]

This week's events had all the elements of a classic Washington scandal: a senator caught in a humiliating gay-sex sting at a Minneapolis airport, alleged hypocrisy on his part in repudiating his guilty plea and denying he is gay, and a shocking narrative that gradually unfolded on television of just what went on in that men's room.
- The Fix, The Washington Post

Senator Craig's resignation is not the result of a classic Washington scandal. There was no bribery no intimidation, no violations of national security.

What happened to Larry Craig has happened a million times, in all times and places where men do not feel free to be who they are, openly and comfortably. What has happened to Larry Craig is a tragedy, not a scandal. Abu Ghraib was a scandal. This is just a personal tragedy, playing out on the front page of the Washington Post, and being exploited by the worst elements of our society.

In my heart, I was hoping Idaho, and the Republican leadership there, would say, "Larry, you have to come clean and, be honest. When you are, we'll stand behind you, and fight for you, because it will be an amazing lesson about lying to yourself, and your family, for all our neighbors to learn from." In my heart, I was a little disappointed when that didn't happen. In Republican America it's okay to have a sex scandal, but only if you are heterosexual. That fact is a diminishing of us all.

[update] Miss Laura said it better over on DailyKos.

But we still need to be fighting the battle to be sure people know, really know, that they can lead happy, full lives after coming out. That their friends and family will still love them, that they will have the job opportunities they should, that they have as good a chance of finding love as anyone. I'm proud to be part of the political party that does believe those things (even if too many of its politicians still won't go the distance on marriage), but I want to live in a world where it's true for everyone, even Republicans.

Republicans Must Not Have Irony

Loudoun County Republicans must not have irony. If they did, they would find this flyer one of the funniest ironic satires ever typeset.

Let's look at these claims, one by one.

Cut Taxes - The Board of Supervisors, which is controlled by the Republicans, raised property taxes this year.

End Gridlock - It's difficult to start solving this problem when you fundamentally oppose the very authority created to deal with this issue. The Loudoun Board of Supervisors denies the Northern Virginia Transportation Authority has the power to issue the bonds necessary to raise the money to fix the problem. Additionally, this Board of Supervisors rarely sees a development it doesn't like. How will the Republicans end gridlock by adding houses and opposing roads? Isn't that just a recipie for more gridlock?

Stop Abuser Fees - Perhaps the most comical of the claims. The Abuser Fees were a Republican idea in the first place! The bill's original sponsor was the Republican Leader: William J. Howell. Trusting the Republicans to "stop" abuser fees is like putting a fox in charge of the henhouse. Remember the debacle left by Governor Gilmore in the wake of the car tax "repeal?" A republican "fix" to the Abuser Fees will be worse.

Stop Sprawl and Density-Packing - The truth of this claim is in the sentence that follows it: "Balanced growth through consensus solutions creating true communities, with great jobs, shopping and recreation close to home." Verbs like "growth" and "creating" aren't used when you actually mean to "stop" something. We all want great jobs, shopping and recreation close to home. Loudoun County Republicans have had four years of control to get that done. They have failed.

Ensure Top-Ranked Schools - Really? Then why did fully half of the Republicans vote to cut $79 Million from the school budget? If not for the leadership of people like Sally Kurtz and Scott York, Republicans like Jim Clem, Lori Waters, Mick Staton and Eugene Delgaudio would have gutted Loudoun's already top-ranked schools.

Uphold Immigration Laws - Of course, the County staff report explains why the issue is a lot more complicated than it seems. I would ask two questions. First, if we uphold the laws and incarcerate all the migrants in Loudoun County in anticipation of their deportation (which, by the way, Loudoun County cannot do itself, only the Federal government can deport someone), may I ask how we will pay for their incarceration? I expect that increasing our prisoner population by a few thousand will increase the need for cells and guards, not to mention food, healthcare and other basic necessities for people who are no longer earning a living in our community. That means more local taxes to do job the Federal government is supposed to be done. Second, if we deny these folks services, may I ask how we are going to pay for the increase in emergency services caused by acute health problems, bureaucracy dealing with drivers arrested for driving without licenses, and the lawsuits that are filed against the County when we deny some children a public education? When the Republicans say they want to uphold immigration laws, it means they're going to raise your taxes.

Clean Up County Government - How are the people who are dirty in county government supposed to clean up county government? The FBI has questioned Republican members of the Board of Supervisors in a corruption probe! It's up to the voters to clean up County Government, by voting the Loudoun Republicans out of government.

To the Loudoun County Republicans, up is down, left is right, and failure - abject, utter failure - is success. It's a good thing the intelligent voters of Loudoun understand irony. On November 6th, we'll have a chance to vote for real leadership.

The Winning Team

On the first day of D1 football in Virginia, I thought people might like a look at the team which will bring change for the better to Loudoun come November 6th.


(Back row, from left, School Board candidates Ryan Myers, Tom Marshall, Kevin Turner, Herb Ryan, John Stevens. Center, BoS candidates Sally Kurtz, Jeanne West, Phyllis Randall, Stevens Miller, Kelly Burk, Andrea McGimsey. Front, Bruce Roemmelt, Mark Herring, Chuck Caputo, Karen Schultz, David Poisson, Marty Martinez, Mike George. Not pictured: Susan Klimek Buckley, Jay Donohue, Chuck Harris)